Simplify your life. Learn to say no

Wednesday, October 26, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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“Focusing is about saying no.” 

Steve Jobs

Very successful people say no to almost everything.

Make decisions with an eye on the future, not just what is good for today

Monday, October 24, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause — it is seen. The others unfold in succession — they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee. Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, — at the risk of a small present evil.

Frédéric Bastiat

In Portugal the government decided to impose a VAT tax of 23%. The receipts went up. however Spain has borders with Portugal and their VAT is 21% and for electricity  is 10% vs 23% in Portugal. Now everybody near the border goes to Spain to buy. This is the unseen result of the policy.

The Modern World Can't Exist Without

Friday, October 21, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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The Modern World Can't Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels

From Time magazine 2022:

Four materials rank highest on the scale of necessity, forming what I have called the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia are needed in larger quantities than are other essential inputs. The world now produces annually about 4.5 billion tons of cement, 1.8 billion tons of steel, nearly 400 million tons of plastics, and 180 million tons of ammonia. But it is ammonia that deserves the top position as our most important material: its synthesis is the basis of all nitrogen fertilizers, and without their applications it would be impossible to feed, at current levels, nearly half of today’s nearly 8 billion people.

From an Amazon review:

His chapter on food production is particularly interesting and he shows how we now manage to feed 8 billion people reasonably well which would have been inconceivable 100 years ago. How do we do it? By using energy supplied mostly from fossil fuels to create fertilizers and by manufacturing farm machinery and road/rail/shipping transport to distribute the products efficiently. The author points out that if we reverted to solely “organic” farming methods we would be lucky to feed half the world’s population.
He covers the supply of key products such as steel, plastics and cement which are essential for our modern standard of living and how they are not only energy intensive in production but that there are few alternatives. He clearly supports the view that the climate is being affected by man’s activities but points out that the changing of energy production, food production and the production of key products cannot be easily achieved. 

Our lives are only possible because of fossil fuels. That is the reality. In fact consumption of Fossil Fuels keeps going up.

“A new masterpiece from one of my favorite authors… [How The World Really Works] is a compelling and highly readable book that leaves readers with the fundamental grounding needed to help solve the world’s toughest challenges.”—Bill Gates

“You can agree or disagree with Smil—accept or doubt his ‘just the facts’ posture—but you probably shouldn’t ignore him. . . In Smil’s provocative but perceptive view, unrealistic notions about carbon reduction are partly, and ironically, attributable to the very productivity that societies achieved by substituting machine work, powered by fossil fuels, for draft animals and human laborers.”—The Washington Post

"[It is] reassuring to read an author so impervious to rhetorical fashion and so eager to champion uncertainty. . . Smil’s book is at its essence a plea for agnosticism, and, believe it or not, humility — the rarest earth metal of all. His most valuable declarations concern the impossibility of acting with perfect foresight. Living with uncertainty, after all, “remains the essence of the human condition.” Even under the most optimistic scenario, the future will not resemble the past. "—The New York Times

I've found that when the market's going down .....

Tuesday, October 11, 2022 Francisco 0 Comments

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I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy.

Peter Lynch

“You must buy on the way down. There is far more volume on the way down than on the way up, and far less competition among buyers. It is almost always better to be too early than too late...” — Seth Klarman

There will always be uncertainty in the economy and on the stock market

If you’re prepared, corrections can’t hurt you. Corrections are great opportunities to pick up the bargains left behind by investors who are panicking.

Peter Lynch

Well, I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do okay, and if one of two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people.

Peter Lynch is one of the greatest investors in the world achieving an annual return of 29.2% (!) between 1977 and 1990. This means your investment would have increased 26x (!)

From the great BCA Research in CANADA.

Is this the bottom? who knows. To buy in a panic it usually works. are we in a panic? well it looks like it at least no one is optimist.