Best Graph Ever





People know that Jacks of All Trades are Masters of None, and people seek out Masters. They trust specialists. Try to appeal to thousands, and you will appeal strongly to no one. 
Harry Beckwith

Focusing is about saying No

Why build a new factory?


Long time Insight readers may recall our earlier statistical work that revealed that the most important driver of capital spending by far is the level of spare capacity.

A.Gary Shilling

Since most factories are working at 80% why built a new one or to hire new workers?

In fact what we are seeing is automation of the current factories and get rid of excess man power. 

There is a lack of demand in the world. In the last 20 years the demand was increased with a growing leverage and credit expansion. Now it's time to pay the debts. We are in deleveraging and that is deflationary!





Capacity Utilization June 2013


No Risk of a Crash


According to the CNBC indicator (I just created it) there is no danger. No one is paying attention to the market.

There is no Euforia like in 2000 & 2008


1000 euros a month to each person over 65 years !


Yesterday ECB cut rates & announced a QE program (ECB is going to buy ABS & CB’s*). The size is data dependent (ECB is going to buy ABS & CB’s). ECB has already engineered a substantial fall in Sovereign yields and now is weakening the euro. What is the impact.

I guess people who have savings/deposits are going to make zero & spend less & less
Inflation will go up a bit because the Euro is weaker
Companies will benefit because the funding is low & euro is weakening
Stock market should go higher (European Financials)

Is this going to revive the European Economy? I doubt only the weaker euro would help. Let's see how low the Euro can go.

The problem of the world is lack of demand. How to solve this problem? The ECB should give a check of 1000 euros for each European over 65 years a month. This would cost 100 million people over 65 * 1000 = 100 billion a month or 1,2 trillion a year

how did the ECB funded this? Print

why only people above 65? To not mess with the labour market. Until 65 you have to work to live.


More about this:


http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/11/pay-people-for-being-alive.html


*The Idea of a QE program is the person who sells their ABS to the European Central Bank gets some money and have to figure out what to do with the money. They might spend it or loan it eventually the money starts to move.

You have a business partner

fish

There are many ways to succeed but I only know 2


1.Get smarter, invest in data & automation. Science

Keith Bedford for The Wall Street Journal

The new CEO of AIG aims "to manage down the cost of risk," by investing in computers and people to dive deeper into data. 

For clues about what direction Peter Hancock is taking American International Group Inc., check out his tennis racket.
"It's the coolest thing," said Mr. Hancock, the insurer's incoming CEO, of the $350 racket. "It tells you exactly how many forehands, backhands you hit, where on the strings you hit the ball, how many were top spins…" He called it "just one tiny example of the kinds of things [technology] can measure now."...................................

Already, Mr. Hancock has a "chief science officer," a position he added in 2012 to the property-casualty unit as part of his effort to focus on science-driven decisions about strategy. The science team numbers about 130, many of them Ph.D.s.

2.Get nicer, invest in Psychology. Be of service.


All things being equal, people will do business with a friend; all things being unequal, people will still do business with a friend.







Cuba & North Korea are nice destinations

In one word, you reproach us with intending to do away with your property. Precisely so: that is just what we intend
Karl Marx, The Communist Manifesto

If people have something to lose they reject communism, only the poor will vote for that. In the last 50 years more & more people have something to lose. Commerce & growth have brought prosperity to millions of people. 

Only the isolated countries (Cuba & North Korea) are still very poor.

The way to make Russia think twice about invading Ukraine might be to isolate them. It could have a cost but the west can afford it. If they don't want to play in the Capitalist game it's ok. Cuba & North Korea is a nice destination.

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