How to make Big Money?

Wednesday, January 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

There are lot's of ways to make money but to make real money there is just one way.

To kill the competition, to be the only one. That is the key. Bill Gates and Carlos Slim aren't the richest guys in the Planet because they are good. They are nº1 in their markets.

If you invent a better product the competition will catch up soon and replicate you. All the advantage goes to the customer.

I guess that is why Google & Amazon are doing so well. They are using the money they make to improve their offering in a way the competition can't match. The market is approving this strategy. They are slowly killing the competition. That is the smartest strategy to do. To do that you can't pay shareholders right now. later big time but not now.


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To Study is not enough!

Tuesday, January 28, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

From Quartz,

These numbers also mask the large number of underemployed people. In countries like India, where education has boomed in the last few decades, there are now more people with degrees than there are jobs for them.

According to Craig Jeffrey, professor of development geography at the University of Oxford, India has a whole class of educated people just passing the time. And, he writes in The Conversation, this is not just the case for India. Other Asian countries, Latin America, Africa and many European countries have such a group, too.

http://qz.com/171310/global-unemployment-is-about-to-get-worse/


Everybody wants their kids to be a captain. With so many degrees out there we have a problem.

I have written about this in the past


I guess the solution for our kids is to choose some different paths from most of their peers. I have mentioned things manual where Humans are much better than robots. You either are in the Robot factory programming or do something Robots can not easily copy (Everything non routine & with a physical/coordination component)




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Even the strong man is sick!

Tuesday, January 28, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

If we see negative Producer Prices in Germany (Prices where negative yoy) what will happen in the periphery!


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Now !

Monday, January 27, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

Every morning we are born again. What we do today is what matters most.
- Buddha

I guess this is very good advice there is no point thinking hard about the past, it's gone and the future begins today. Just live today fully is a very good advice.

Some people forecast many problems that never happen and they agonize while think about bad outcomes. I am not like this guy at all.

Expect everything, I always say, and the unexpected never happens.” 


― Norton Juster, The Phantom Tollbooth

What i tend to do is to accept whatever god sends. And this is very liberating. Just live today with what god gives you. It's a lot.



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QE forever !

Monday, January 27, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

ECB poised for battle to ward off deflation

Mario Draghi has signalled that he would be prepared for the European Central Bank to fight deflation in Europe by buying packages of bank loans to households and companies.



I see no ending on QE by the simple reason that the world has a lack of demand (or Excess Supply) of almost everything. If central banks stop doing what they are doing the market forces would guarantee deflation on many products. Why is this? Because with the help of automation the amount that we can produce of almost anything in simply growing much faster than demand.

I don't see a solution to this problem. In this world we should invest in Brands, Biotech, Automation/Robotics and Monopolies. Only these have some kind of pricing power. All the rest all vulnerable to the market forces.

Where are located the Brands, monopolies, biotech, etc.... USA, Germany Switzerland, etc... The center is benefiting from Globalization. We see people on the streets on some EM but their leaders can't do nothing. It's a battle difficult to win.


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Emerging markets are not Emerging

Thursday, January 23, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

The beguiling idea of "convergence" still lives. But it shouldn't. The basic notion of convergence is that incomes in poor nations will rapidly catch up—or converge—with those in rich nations.


Millions of small Chinese factories are falling prey to a slowing economy. The latest evidence: the flash Markit/HSBC Purchasing Manager’s Index, which is more weighted toward smaller, private companies than the government’s own index, dropped to 49.6 in January—below the critical 50 mark that divides contraction from expansion.



Well you already know why i think the center (US &Germany) is doing much better that Emerging Markets. http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/01/if-you-can-buy-anything-anywhere-why.html  

What can Emerging Markets do to prosper in this world where the economies of scale & brand favor the big and the best in each industry.

One thing is to invest in the big and the best. If they are going to kill us let make some money on it.

But the best strategy is to build some brands & to focus on one or two things they do very well. 

To me Samsung is a outlier and they will not be able to keep up with Apple & other high tech american companies. To me Samsung is a short because i think it's much easier to invent/discover the next thing if you are in Sillicon Valley near Colleges & other companies that do what you do. 

What EM can & should do is to invest in marketing. They need to build Global brands. In what you might ask? well brazilian beer company AmBev bought Interbrew (Stella & Beck's), and in 2008 Anheuser-Busch (Budweiser) , Grupo Modelo (Corona) and yesterday South Korea Oriental Brewery.

Of Course there are not many good managements like Jorge Paulo Lehmann/ CarlosBrito but i think EM must think global, build national champions that should buy other competitors. In 2008 many EM companies had market caps that could support overseas expansion. 




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47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades

Tuesday, January 21, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

Until now the jobs most vulnerable to machines were those that involved routine, repetitive tasks. But thanks to the exponential rise in processing power and the ubiquity of digitised information (“big data”), computers are increasingly able to perform complicated tasks more cheaply and effectively than people. Clever industrial robots can quickly “learn” a set of human actions. Services may be even more vulnerable. Computers can already detect intruders in a closed-circuit camera picture more reliably than a human can. By comparing reams of financial or biometric data, they can often diagnose fraud or illness more accurately than any number of accountants or doctors. One recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that 47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades.

The Economist, The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense—and no country is ready for it!



Well do you think the things humans do better than machines/Robots are going to increase or the Robots are going to improve even faster than Humans?

Of course.....

What is the smart thing to do?

1.Invest your savings in the Robot factory (Google, Facebook, Amazon, and some other Emerging Companies)
2.Learn how to write code
3.Invest strongly in all things athletics that you need coordination, etc... Machines/Robots can think much better than a Human but coordination & movement humans always win hands down.




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Passions cost money!

Monday, January 20, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

From Scott Adams, 

What's the best way to climb to the top? Be a failure.

But the most dangerous case of all is when successful people directly give advice. For example, you often hear them say that you should "follow your passion." That sounds perfectly reasonable the first time you hear it. Passion will presumably give you high energy, high resistance to rejection and high determination. Passionate people are more persuasive, too. Those are all good things, right?
Here's the counterargument: When I was a commercial loan officer for a large bank, my boss taught us that you should never make a loan to someone who is following his passion. For example, you don't want to give money to a sports enthusiast who is starting a sports store to pursue his passion for all things sporty. That guy is a bad bet, passion and all. He's in business for the wrong reason.

My boss, who had been a commercial lender for over 30 years, said that the best loan customer is someone who has no passion whatsoever, just a desire to work hard at something that looks good on a spreadsheet. Maybe the loan customer wants to start a dry-cleaning store or invest in a fast-food franchise—boring stuff. That's the person you bet on. You want the grinder, not the guy who loves his job.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304626104579121813075903866


I totally agree with this advice, people who follow their passion normally have a decent product/idea but go bankrupt! 
My job is to help rich people to make money with money! I have made many mistakes but the ones that are recurrent are when i invest with a manager that has written a book, that has some kind of strategy that they follow like a religion, etc... These normally cost me money! They are stubborn and they don't change exactly because they are following some higher religion.
The ones that are flexible & pragmatic are the ones who change, who adapt and prosper. These have no passion besides surviving. Surviving is a big goal.

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If you can buy anything anywhere why not to buy the best?

Monday, January 20, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

2013 was a risk on year. But not all went up big. The best equity markets were Japan up 56,72% for the year, USA up 29,60% and Germany up 25,48%. Some of the worst equity markets were the BRIC's with Brazil -15,50%, China -6,75%, Russia -5,55% and India 8,98%.
 
What can we take from this?
 
My explanation why Developed markets are doing better than Emerging markets it's because many Chinese & Indian kids buy music of Adele, Taylor Swift or One Direction and not many German or American kids buy Indian music. That is simple as that. As the Emerging market's start to emerge and people get to have some money they want to buy the best in the world. They want an i-Phone, a BMW or a Rolex , etc....
 
You can look at the Global 50 Albums of 2012 and we can't find many Emerging market names!
 
With Globalization & Internet people know what is the best (What is perceived to be the best) and they want the best. The best in each industry & the best in each category usually are located in US, Germany and other developed markets.
 
I think that is what we are witnessing presently. Big Get Bigger is a big trend. The companies that are multinationals with big R&D budgets and huge marketing power are growing much bigger that the local player. Small & Local is not so beautiful.

If you can buy anything anywhere why not to buy the best?



 


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Nintendo & Best Buy

Friday, January 17, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Nintendo & Best Buy just missed earnings big time. To me it's no surprise because i Blogged about Best Buy in December. No way they are going to match Amazon. 

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2013/12/how-to-beat-amazon.html


Best Buy slumped 31% in opening trading after the company reported an unexpected 0.9% decline in U.S. comparable sales. The company said its price matching and other promotions to stay competitive also came with a higher-than-expected cost. Its fourth-quarter adjusted operating income rate as a percentage of sales will be as much as 1.85 percentage points lower than last year. Best Buy, which promoted mobile phones aggressively, said the market also turned out disappointing.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behindthestorefront/2014/01/16/best-buy-stock-dives-after-what-ceo-calls-a-speed-bump/


About Nintendo i just can say my kids play on the I-pod & PlayStation. As Peter Lynch used to do just look at home & the people you know. I think Nintendo is also a short.

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Technology will replace 80 percent of doctors!

Thursday, January 16, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Accomplished Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla likens modern healthcare to witchcraft, and says technology will replace 80 percent of doctors.
His views, offered up in a talk last week in San Francisco, sparked outrage from doctors.

http://venturebeat.com/2012/09/02/vinod-khosla-says-technology-will-replace-80-percent-of-doctors-sparks-indignation/

No surprise here, since with the same set of symptoms and exams 10 different doctors can diagnose 5 completely different problems !

Khosla said that machines, driven by large data sets and computations power, not only would be cheaper, more accurate and objective, but better than the average doctor



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Most profound business lesson I have ever learned

Wednesday, January 15, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Most profound business lesson I have ever learned
Steve Wynn 

In the spring of 2008, I received a call from a friend, a British hedge fund manager, who was attending the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles. "I've just heard the greatest business speech of my life," he told me. "bar none". The man he had heard was Steve Wynn, a billionaire hotel and casino owner. The way my friend described it, Wynn had walked unsteadily to a microphone onstage. His eyesight was failing and he needed to be guided to his spot. He had then begun talking quietly, so everyone in the audience had to lean forward to hear. "I'm going to discuss something publicly that I've never discussed in my career" he began. He called it the "most profound business lesson I have ever learned". Now he had everyone's attention.
Wynn has thrived in one of the toughest, most competitive businesses in the world: Las Vegas gambling and hospitality. He has been a key figure in the rapid growth of Las Vegas over three decades. Financed by junk bonds issued by Michael Milken of Drexel Burnham Lambert in the 1980s, Wynn was able to build the Mirage, his first great casino resort. Then came Treasure Island, the Bellagio, and ultimately his eponymous Wynn Las Vegas and Wynn Macau. When a man like that promises to reveal a business secret, you listen.
A few years ago, he had dropped his wife and adult daughter off in Paris and then flown on to Singapore. They were staying at a Four Seasons Hotel George V, just off the Champs-Élysées. One morning, they ordered breakfast in their room. Wynn's daughter Gillian ordered a croissant. It was delicious and rich, and she could eat only half of it. She wrapped the rest in plastic wrap and left it on the refrigerator so she could eat it when she returned from her day of meetings.
But when Gillian and her mother returned to their room, the croissant was gone. Ah well, they thought. Fair enough. Housekeeping must have assumed it was left to be thrown away. Then they noticed the message light was flashing on their phone. Wynn's wife, Elaine, called the reception desk. The Housekeeper wanted a word. "Thank you for calling," the housekeeper said. "We wanted to know when you got back so we could bring you a fresh croissant. The one you left out would have gone dry by now." So impressed was Elaine that she called her husband on the other side of the world. He in turn was so impressed that he called his friend Issy Sharp, the founder and chairman of the Four Seasons, in Canada. "He lit up over the phone," said Wynn." He said 'Oh boy, isn't that great?" As he told his story, Wynn himself, who has a broad, white smile, was grinning at the memory.
If he could have one professional wish come true, he said, it would be this: "that my employees would relate to people not as customer with an employee, but as two human beings talking to one another. Not Mr. Black jack dealer to Black jack player, but as Louise and Mr. Jones. If some some how we could harness that energy, we could change the history of the enterprise and achieve total market dominance in any service business in the world. Is it actually possible to scale up the attentiveness of that one housekeeper to an entire organization employing thousands? Could you, as he put it, create a situation where your employees, left alone with a customer, with no management supervision, could find a way to deliver service that made them feel instantly gratified?
Threatening punishment or offering financial incentives in a systematic way was difficult without an impossibly high level of monitoring. The only way would be to make an employee want to deliver this extraordinary level of service for reasons they found personally fulfilling. That, said Wynn, would be "the answer to a sailor's dream". 
The dream turned out to be a system called "storytelling". At the Wynn Resorts, before each eight-hour shift, groups of twelve to eighteen employees meet up with their supervisor. Maids meet their inspector, dealers meet their pit bosses. These are the lowest ranks in the firm, the staff who deal with customers, and their immediate supervisors. 
The supervisors begin the meetings with the question "Anything happen yesterday that is interesting?" Slowly, the hands go up. As Wynn describes it, one man mentions that he saw a woman drop something from her purse as she went into her room. He say it was her credit card, picked it up, knocked on her door, and returned it to her. Another man was helping a couple who had just arrived and realized they had left their medication at home in Encino, just outside Los Angeles, a five hour drive away. They were panicking and thought they were going to have to cancel their vacation and go home. No problem, the man said. Is there anyone at your house? A housekeeper the couple said. Fine, said the Wynn employee. His brother, Mr. Ramirez, lived not far away. He told the couple to instruct their Housekeeper that a man named Ramirez would be coming to pick up their medication, and that Wynn employee would then retrieve it from his brother. He told his supervisor about the situation, who told him to set off right away. The medication was with the couple before morning. And their loyalty to Wynn Resorts was likely guaranteed forever.
Each of these stories is published on Wynn intranet and printed up and posted on the walls of the service areas in the back of the House. Now says Wynn every member of staff wants their story on the wall. "Everyone goes to work looking for a goddam story the next day", said Wynn. "It is pristine, it is simple, it is profoundly effective, and it has changed the history of my enterprise." 
For Wynn, storytelling as a means of getting employees to feel good about themselves through their work and provide superlative customer service as a result is "like splitting the atom".

This is from the excellent book,The Art of the Sale, Philip Broughton


I am always Blogging about automation destroying the human touch but if the it's done correctly the service can be a big hedge. Why? because

All things being equal, people will do business with a friend; all things being unequal, people will still do business with a friend.
Mark McCormack 


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Aren't School grades a good predictor of future success?

Tuesday, January 14, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

Recently, I discovered that Pulitzer prize author Charles Duhigg says essentially the same thing in his 2012 book,“The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business.”
At the core of that education is an intense focus on an all-important habit: willpower. Dozens of studies show that willpower is the single most important keystone habit for individual success. In a 2005 study, for instance, researchers from the University of Pennsylvania analyzed 164 eighth-grade students, measuring their IQs and other factors, including how much willpower the students demonstrated, as measured by tests of their self-discipline.
An excellent synonym for willpower is self control. Another one is conscientiousness. It should not be necessary to point out that conscientious, self-controlled schoolchildren behave well in school. Nor should we be surprised that classroom behavior robustly predicts present and future success.

Students who exerted high levels of willpower were more likely to earn higher grades in their classes and gain admission into more selective schools. They had fewer absences and spent less time watching television and more hours on homework. “Highly self-disciplined adolescents outperformed their more impulsive peers on every academic-performance variable,” the researchers wrote. “Self-discipline predicted academic performance more robustly than did IQ. Self-discipline also predicted which students would improve their grades over the course of the school year, whereas IQ did not.… Self-discipline has a bigger effect on academic performance than does intellectual talent.”

http://schoolcrossing.blogspot.pt/2013_12_01_archive.html


When i look back some of the people who are doing better in life they were not the top students! Why is that? Aren't grades a good predictor of future success? In College i remember that sometimes we had 3 final exams in 1 week. So we had to study fast, i had time just to read something only once. In this environment to be able to grasp at first read is very important. Probably the most intelligent students did best.
However in real life if you want to read the book 10 times you can. So in real life the people with a lot of willpower and persistence are the ones who win.
In Charles Duhigg example, they say that students with self discipline improve the most. The operative work is improving. I can believe that. 
To be smart is important but to work hard is even better.


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Buy stock in the Robot factory!

Monday, January 13, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

MY favorite story in Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s fascinating new book, “The Second Machine Age,” is when the Dutch chess grandmaster Jan Hein Donner was asked how he’d prepare for a chess match against a computer, like I.B.M.’s Deep Blue. Donner replied: “I would bring a hammer.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/opinion/sunday/friedman-if-i-had-a-hammer.html?_r=0

I didn't read this new book yet. But i have blogged a lot about these theme. Automation in all areas of our life. What to do? Invest in the factory that is building the machines that are replacing us. I guess Google, Amazon, irobot, etc... would be in the portfolio.

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Biggest risk of 2014 is ......

Friday, January 10, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Still Deflation, the GaveKal Price indicator is at -7 the minimum on the scale. It's possible that we see CPI near zero in 2014. I don't see the FED ending QE soon.

Why are we in a deflation trap?

a)Automation & Technology make it cheaper to produce
b)Unemployment is huge
c)Excess capacity everywhere

I agree with this view. Treasury yields will not go trough the roof.

From Gave-Kal research

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If kids cut the veggies, they will eat them

Wednesday, January 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

I have seen a study that claims exactly that. The idea is if kids have some stake in what has been served they will eat more than if they are just passive. I will need to try this.

My kids don't eat veggies at all. I don't think they will die if they don't eat them and i don't want to bribe or make them sit until they eat their veggies. I am almost vegan. They see what i eat and they have fresh salad everyday at the table. 
A typical meal for me is Soup, big salad with 5 or 6 different types of veggies & Quinoa.

I believe more than lecturing the example in a key motivator. Let's see if it works.

Of course if i serve chips & snacks every meal they will not touch any vegetable soon. 


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Not all is lost against Robots !

Tuesday, January 07, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Why do we have brains?

To control movement!



We have no chance against Robot's & Computers in thinking, calculating, algebra, remembering, organizing etc.... We are better than Robots at complex movements like playing soccer, pouring water into a glass, etc... 

In this movie about How Amazon Warehouse works we can see that all the simple tasks are automated but to pick the book's from the shelf and to fit it into the appropriate box that it's done by a human. 



I guess in the future there are 3 things that man (human) can do, help designing the Robots (Programming, etc....), creative jobs like art &marketing and perform complex movements like (hairdresser, bike repair, massage, sports, etc....). My take on this is that we should be in shape. Do some Pilates, Yoga, step, dancing etc.. all things that can help your coordination & control if you are not into writing code.


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Happiness = Health + Freedom

Monday, January 06, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

As luck would have it, the good habits that make you healthy and energetic help to make you happy at the same time, so it’s a double win.

Scott Adams

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/read-this-if-you-want-to-be-happy-in-2014/2014/01/02/d96370f0-7192-11e3-9389-09ef9944065e_print.html


I agree 100% with Scott Adams. I think the best investment you can make is to stay healthy. Why? Because when you are healthy and in good shape you fell happy, confident and the people you interact with notice it. In my country the Ministry of Health should be called the Ministry of Sickness because they only care about the sick people. The Ministry of Sports (Doesn't exist) should be the real Health Ministry.

How do you stay Healthy? Health = movement+don't eat to much garbage food

If you move 90% of your Health problems disappear. Just move a bit every day on top of that my experience indicates that if you move depression disappears almost for ever. 

To move is something that you can control, to stay healthy is something that you can control, many things in life are out of our control. This is in our control. So do it and be Happy.

1 comentários:

New year resolutions

Friday, January 03, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Well i didn't thought a lot about this because sometimes i feel hopelessly not in charge. The world has changed a bit recently and it's been difficult to navigate due to many things that i write in this blog often. There are few winners and the winner takes all is the current environment. It was always like this but i think this is getting worse with Globalization & Internet. The space i am more in control is in the mountain bike where when i train hard i see results. Competition where there are no referees are a natural place for me. The markets are also a fair competition, even if markets are manipulated there was space to figure them out.

What i hope to do this year is the following:

1.More in tune with the markets. I have been pessimistic and that has prevented me from making more money. With the current environment it's easier to make money in the markets than working. I hope i can make more money to me & to my clients in 2014.

2.I got divorced in 2013 and this year i want to stabilize my new life with my girlfriend and my kids. I need to create new routines and settle a bit. I want to get closer to my friends & family.

3.In sports i am going to take 1 year off. I will train as usual but no crazy diets and no crazy schedules. I will compete but this year i will do it easy. After 4 years at full speed i am going to try a different approach. I will post about my new approach. 

4.I would like to do as Warren Buffet 

I just sit in my office and read all day
Warren Buffet

5.I hope to travel to new places & meet new clients

6. I would like to improve my writing. I want to do a copy course or something like that. My natural language is not English and i would love to improve.



From http://www.graciebarra.com/2012/12/great-holiday-brazilian-jiu-jitsu-activities-for-kids/calvin-hobbes-new-years-resolutions/

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Is this a trend?

Thursday, January 02, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


I took this graph from the excellent site Quartz.com. This illustrates one of the biggest trends i see. People in emerging markets want to buy i-phones & BMW's. When they have money they want to buy the best in the world and the best is in America & some Europe. Of course no trend is so clear that is always in place but slowly year in year out the winners of Globalization & Internet/Information are the best and the biggest. Of course EM stocks are cheap but slowly we are seeing what already happens in music. There are many people in India that love Madonna, Lady Gaga or Bon Jovi the first 3 of the Forbes list. But i don't see many Americans buying the best India music or the best Chinese music. That is why there are only Americans & Europeans in the top of the rankings in music.In Soccer/Football i see the same trend many people from EM love United & Real Madrid or Barcelona. But despite Brazil having the best players in the world Brazilian football is mostly local and i have problems finding information about their competition.
Why do DM developed markets can sell in EM, because they have a brand. 

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