EU is not a free lunch !

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“The English lose all the battles and win all the wars.”


Charles Gave
In a world where communications and information are better and better what can you expect? 

 I expect that the best guy in the world doing car's will do all the cars (Germans & Japanese) The best guys doing phones will produce all the phones in the world ( i-phones )

 big get bigger and the best will win. Kids know what is the best and they want the best.

 The way to survive in this world is as was always the case differentiation. You need to do something very different and be the best at it. UK out of the EU will do very well there is no reason to expect otherwise. 

 Outside the EU they can have different rules and prosper. In my country Portugal we have the same rules that came from Brussels it's an equal plain field  but since our land is much difficult to do cereals/corn etc... we can't compete with France. All our farmers have to do pigs, Olives, wine etc...

 specialization is the way out and UK can do well in our out. It doesn't matter. Respect of property & capitalism will ensure success to the UK. As always.

 Britons should not stress! Nothing is going to change. It doesn't matter. EU does not gives anything. zero. You have to be different to survive. 
In order to be irreplaceable one must always be different. 
Coco Chanel

 If you want to be around in 10 years you've got to do something to differentiate yourself from the pack. 
Chris Evans

 America has believed that in differentiation, not in uniformity, lies the path of progress. It acted on this belief; it has advanced human happiness, and it has prospered. 
Louis D. Brandeis

 Differentiate or die

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One bad Idea

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Bloomberg reports,
The Japanese government plans to include gift certificates for low-income young people in its fiscal 2016 supplementary budget, Sankei reports, without saying who provided the information.

Recipients would be able to use them for daily necessities.

The government sees gift certificates as more effective in stimulating consumption than cash handouts, which may be deposited.

 To give a voucher to retirees  (above 60)  i see the point because they are already out of the labor force. To give money to working age people will make them unfit to work in no time. Bad Idea.
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The UK doesn't exist

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Why i don't care about Brexit? because it changes nothing to me

 what is the European Union? 

 i believe it's a free trade zone. you can sell anywhere. your domestic market is much bigger
students can study anywhere
there are some similar rules across countries
people can work in the best place for them
if you are regulated in one country you can do business in all of them without permission
there are no borders with check points
you are not searched by police when entering a country
you are not robbed by some currency trader each time you want to visit other country
If you go to a hospital in France (i did) you are treated without paying you just have to show your ID card
When you arrive in a EU country from outside of the EU you go to a very fast lane just for EU passports instead of.................... 

 what are the problem with EEC

 countries pay some taxes that are spent paying subsidies to French farmers
there are rules about the way you bottled milk and every country have to obey it
the bureaucrats in Brussels don't pay taxes

 Despite all this countries can tax their citizens and companies differently, countries can approve medicines or ban others. 
Countries can close pubs at a fixed hour in the night and people have to get drunk fast before the close!
Countries can decide that cars go on the wrong side of the street (There are no more UK car manufactures anymore, to have completely different rules does not prevent UK firms to disappear) 

 In our world it changes nothing if UK leaves or not. perhaps when i order books from Amazon they will be shipped from a different country than UK. that is the biggest problem to me. and that is a small problem.

 I really don't care if they leave or not. The weather in Britain is a disgrace and it's not going to change even if they leave.

 Whatever happens Britons will google, buy in Amazon, iphones etc...Britain doesn't exist people do what is best for them.
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Until recently, advanced melanoma would have been a near-certain death sentence !

Monday, June 06, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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all evils are caused by insufficient knowledge'

David Deutsch's 'Principle of Optimism' in The Beginning of Infinity
From the FT, Andrew Ward

When Jimmy Carter was diagnosed last year with melanoma that had spread to his brain, many people feared the worst for the oldest living US president.

Yet four months after making his condition public, he revealed that the cancer had disappeared. By March this year, doctors were confident enough to give him the all-clear. “So I’m not going to have any more treatment,” he told the Sunday school class he teaches in his home town of Plains, Georgia

Mr Carter, 91, is one of the latest beneficiaries of a new drug type which many scientists, medics and pharmaceuticals executives believe is destined to transform the treatment of cancer. Until recently, advanced melanoma would have been a near-certain death sentence. That has begun to change since the arrival of Keytruda, the drug by Merck of the US given to Mr Carter, and a rival product, Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo.
Everything that is physically possible will be invented very soon. This is just the beginning. first i see a world of opportunity & spare time. people will have a lot of leisure time, machines will do more & more, the energy problem will be solved without oil or natural resources (Buy Nike & entertainment stocks).

All that will be invented will happen in the developed world. Some countries will produce nothing of value very soon.

However i also see that  governments around the world will extend their power. new technologies have to be limited! If people find out how to tweak with the DNA we will produce disease free people? super athletes, super intelligent etc...I

Government power will increase more & more.

 more about the same

 https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/06/statistically-there-is-50-chance-that.html
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Many people in the world are sick of listening to what is the best for them, for their village for their family

Friday, June 03, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 2 Comments

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Charles Gave
From the best Research service in the world
Gave Kal

 Clearly Clinton represents the people of the boats—more adventurous, more international, more educated and richer—while Trump aims to represent the people of the trees. In this, Trump has an enormous advantage: he has understood that in the US the people of the trees are immensely aggrieved by the arrogance of the people of the boats, who obviously consider the people of the trees to be brain-dead rednecks.
This is one more sign that the people of the boats, whom I have also called “the men of Davos” (see Dissolving The People) have made the mistake of believing their own propaganda, and have badly misread the people of the trees. No, most people do not like the big wide world; they prefer their own village. No, they do not believe that someone who has circled the world 200 times knows more than they do. No, they do not think that just because you went to a prestigious school or university, you have an automatic right to lord it over them. No, they do not think that not having a passport is a sign they are idiots. And no, they do not think that having their country invaded by people they do not know is a good idea.

 http://research.gavekal.com/ As usual i agree with Charles Gave, the world has been governed by this Davos elite and growth has stalled since 2000. Some countries came to a total standstill Japan & Eurozone and even US with their platform companies (facebook, Google, Amazon etc....) are growing slowly.

 It's easy to govern when there is progress and when people feel they are moving ahead.

 Now many people in the world are sick of listening to what is the best for them, free commerce zones, eurozone treaties, more & more regulation, open borders, they should receive refugees in their villages, they should pay more taxes, etc.... 

 Some times people are voting for what they think is best for them & their villages and not listening to the DAVOS people (Clinton etc...) that is the reason Trump & Brexit are so high in the polls.

 what is the problem with Globalization? In the end the best car factory will produce cars for all the world. They have more size they have more money, they have more research budget they will kill the small factories everywhere.

 The zero interest experiment takes money from all the savers in the world people don't get any income from their savings.

 well people are a bit tired of this elite that knows best.

 what will happen if Trump wins? life goes on................

 From the Economist, The bigger, the less fair
Another new paper**, which looks at manufacturing in America, China and India from 1982 to 2007, suggests that the trend towards bigger firms is only likely to accelerate. Big firms’ higher productivity, it argues, raises the barriers to entry for new—and presumably smaller—competitors. Larger factories are more productive than smaller ones, so bigger firms can entrench their position over time. That will skew the income distribution even more.

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work spend, work more spend more, etc....Yes you can do better than this

Thursday, June 02, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“They get up every day and go work for money, not taking the time to ask the question, ‘Is there another way?”
― Robert T. Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad

“Rule #1: You must know the difference between an asset and a liability, and buy assets. If you want to be rich, this is all you need to know. It is rule number one. It is the only rule. This may sound absurdly simple, but most people have no idea how profound this rule is. Most people struggle financially because they do not know the difference between an asset and a liability. “Rich people acquire assets. The poor and middle class acquire liabilities that they think are assets, “ said rich dad.”
― Robert T. Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad


yes when you start working don't live with everything you can. If you have money to buy a car don't buy the car. Save the money & buy asset's. wait 10 years for the car

 when you are in your 20's & 30's don't spend it all, don't buy the house that you need, wait and you will have a better house later.

 what do you do with the saved money? buy asset's

 what are asset's?

 houses to rent
mutual funds
stock's
things that you can rent

 what are liabilities. Things that next year are probably worth less and you pay to maintain them every year

 a second home
a car
a motorbike
a boat

 “An asset is something that puts money in my pocket. A liability is something that takes money out of my pocket.”
― Robert T. Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad


what is the purpose of all of this? hopefully one day you make a bit from your work and you make as much from your asset's. If you have a bit of luck (invest during a Bull market) one day you could live only from your asset's. the rat race would be over!

 “The poor and the middle class work for money. The rich have money work for them.”
― Robert T. Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad
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A check every month without doing nothing

Wednesday, June 01, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The Swiss will vote next Sunday about a check every month to every soul ? 

 why? People are realizing that in the automated world you only need 20% or 30% of the world population to work in order to have everything we need.  If you have a machine that cooks and cleans your house why hire a house maid? I think the world is not yet prepared but it will come.

 you have to sustain people , because they are not needed anymore? it's a big big problem. Perhaps a cheaper and less problematic solution is to pay a check only for people above 60 years old. This way the labor market would not be impacted.

Work, as Lawrence Katz of Harvard once pointed out, is not just what people do for a living. It is a source of status. It organizes people’s lives. It offers an opportunity for progress. None of this can be replaced by a check.
Eduardo Porter
ECONOMIC SCENE
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Balanced life ? not possible

Wednesday, June 01, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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The Four Burners Theory: The Downside of Work-Life Balance

by James Clear
Read this on JamesClear.com
 
There is a concept known as The Four Burners Theory. Here’s how it was first explained to me:
Imagine that your life is represented by a stove with four burners on it. Each burner symbolizes one major quadrant of your life.
1.     The first burner represents your family.
2.    The second burner is your friends.
3.    The third burner is your health.
4.    The fourth burner is your work.
The Four Burners Theory says that "in order to be successful you have to cut off one of your burners. And in order to be really successful you have to cut off two." [1]

 This is obviously true, if you are one of the best in the world in anything you leave some (many) areas of your life behind.

 You can't do the 4 successfully at the same time. My advice is to concentrate when you work you work really hard and leave behind the other 3 a bit, when you do sports do it for real. when you are with your family & kids don't multitask.

 that is my strategy, when i am doing something i concentrate everything on that area we don't have time do all at the same time.




more about the same:

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/02/forget-about-balanced-life.html
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