Productivity = Deflation

Friday, March 31, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Some ideas for Friday

Friday, March 31, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Never trust the advice of a man in difficulties.
Aesop
Greek slave & fable author (620 BC - 560 BC)


What was going on? think about it in terms of cognitive dissonance. if I have put up with a lot to become a member of a group, if I have voluntarily subjected myself to acute embarrassment , I would have to be pretty stupid if the group turned out to be anything less than wonderful.
To protect my self-esteem I will want to convince myself that the group is pretty damn good. Hence the necessity to talk it up, to reframe my perceptions in a positive direction.
Mathew Syed

Honesty pays, but it doesn't seem to pay enough to suit some people.
Kin Hubbard
(1868 - 1930)  

The trouble with jogging is that, by the time you realize you're not in shape for it, it's too far to walk back.


No one has ever had an idea in a dress suit.
Sir Frederick G. Banting
Canadian physician & physiologist (1891 - 1941)  



Have a great weekend
@carneirao101

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Counting beans

Wednesday, March 22, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

From Seth Godin Blog

Counting beans
If you have to serve chili to 1,000 people, holding back just one bean from each person means you end up with a tidy savings, and almost no one is going to notice.
If you run a call center and hire people who make a dollar less an hour, who are less supported, or less trained, or less caring, the impact on each interaction will probably seem pretty small. Of course, if you have a thousand operators, you just saved a lot of money.
And, if you make cars and you figure out how to replace a bolt with a slightly less resilient one, very few drivers will notice, and if you make 200,000 cars a year, that might be enough to pay your entire salary.
You've already guessed the problem.
Some people will notice that the portions are a little skimpy. Some customers will be annoyed enough to switch to another company. And some people are going to die.
When we add up lots of little compromises, we get to celebrate the big win. But overlooked are the unknown costs over time, the erosion in brand, the loss in quality, the subtraction from something that took years to add up.
In a competitive environment, the key question is: What would happen if we did a little better? 

Organizations that add just a little bit every day always defeat those that are in the subtraction business.



I think Seth has a point the organizations that are doing well do something for their clients, bring some value Amazon, Booking, Apple, etc....

When you are in the subtraction business normaly you don't research and you don't think in the most important question of all

How can i improve my client life ?

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Ummmmmmm

Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

From The Daily Shot


China: Similar to what’s taking place in the US, the Shanghai Composite has shifted into the low-volatility regime. The index saw 64 consecutive trading days without a 1% decline – a record.



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Strategy in the Age of Superabundant Capital

Friday, March 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Very interesting article from HBR. When debt & equity is cheap like today, cost of capital is around 6% it pays more to find growth than to optimize margins (see graph below). If you manage to create 1% growth it change the value of the company by 27%! 
How to grow?   bet in many directions even at the risk of lower FOCUS. somethings will work big time.

FROM HBR
FROM THE MARCH–APRIL 2017 ISSUE
Today financial capital is no longer a scarce resource—it is abundant and cheap. Bain’s Macro Trends Group estimates that global financial capital has more than tripled over the past three decades and now stands at roughly 10 times global GDP. As capital has grown more plentiful, its price has plummeted. For many large companies, the after-tax cost of borrowing is close to the rate of inflation, meaning that real borrowing costs hover near zero. Any reasonably profitable large enterprise can readily obtain the capital it needs to buy new equipment, fund new product development, enter new markets, and even acquire new businesses. To be sure, leadership teams still need to manage their money carefully—after all, waste is waste. But the skillful allocation of financial capital is no longer a source of sustained competitive advantage.
The assets that are in short supply at most companies are the skills and capabilities required to translate good growth ideas into successful new products, services, and businesses—and the traditional financially driven approach to strategic investment has only compounded this paucity. 


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No Risk = Lot of Risk

Friday, March 17, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

 The market sees no risk! what makes the market very risky? when everybody has already bought we are in a top, when there is a lot of fear and everybody has sold we are in a bottom.

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Some Thoughts

Thursday, March 16, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

"If you set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on anything at any time, and
you would achieve nothing."

Margaret Thatcher
  
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Bob Farrell’s rule #4

A little bit of history – there have been 13 Fed rate hike cycles in the post-WWII era, and 10 landed the economy in recession.
David Rosenberg

Remember happiness doesn't depend upon who you are or what you have; it depends solely on what you think.
Dale Carnegie

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I see vacations in MEXICO soon!

Wednesday, March 15, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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we have a trend ! down always down

Wednesday, March 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Image result for approval ratings of new presidents at inauguration

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First driving lesson !

Wednesday, March 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


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Yes it's free !

Wednesday, March 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

“I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.”
Mark Twain


“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.”
Mahatma Gandhi


“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”
Confucius



What online technology does for business schools is very substantially expand their market to people who don’t take time out from their career to come back to business school


Rick Levin CEO of Coursera


I already took a online course in Coursera at The University of San Diego, it's free you only pay the diploma if you want one. One of the perks of online education is that you learn from the best teachers in the world and if you were attending a traditional University you have the local teacher not the best in the world.


When I finished the Online course you get this email

Ready to learn something new?

Francisco Carneiro, congratulations!

Completing an online course is no simple endeavor. It requires time, dedication, and commitment, so when we say "Congratulations" - we mean it! Take a moment to reflect on your hard work and enjoy your completion of Learning How to Learn: Powerful mental tools to help you master tough subjects. You’ve earned it.



You completed Learning How to Learn: Powerful mental tools to help you master tough subjects!
Verified Assignments Passed
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Final Grade

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Many completers formalize their achievement with a Course Certificate unique to them and their accomplishment. If you think you'd like to share this achievement with colleagues, friends, or potential employers one day, we recommend getting the certificate now. It's a tangible way to communicate your educational background, work ethic, and personal ambitions to others.

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When winners are taking all, it's often time to buy the winners

Tuesday, March 07, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Disturbing New Facts About American Capitalism

When winners are taking all, it's often time to buy the winners


JASON ZWEIG
Mar 3, 2017 8:41 am ET

“Let your winners run” is one of the oldest adages in investing. One of the newest ideas is that the winners may be running away with everything.
Modern capitalism is built on the idea that as companies get big, they become fat and happy, opening themselves up to lean and hungry competitors who can underprice and overtake them. That cycle of creative destruction may be changing in ways that help explain the seemingly unstoppable rise of the stock market.
New research by economists Gustavo Grullon of Rice University, Yelena Larkin of York University and Roni Michaely of Cornell University argues that U.S. companies are moving toward a winner-take-all system in which giants get stronger, not weaker, as they grow.
That’s the latest among several recent studies by economists working independently, all arriving at similar findings: A few “superstar firms” have grown to dominate their industries, crowding out competitors and controlling markets to a degree not seen in many decades.
Let’s look beyond such obvious winner-take-all examples as Apple or Alphabet, the parent of Google.

Consider real-estate services. In 1997, according to Profs. Grullon, Larkin and Michaely, that sector had 42 publicly traded companies; the four largest generated 49% of the group’s total revenues. By 2014, only 20 public firms were left, and the top four — CBRE GroupJones Lang LaSalleRealogy Holdings and Wyndham Worldwide — commanded 78% of the group’s combined revenues.


A friend from São Paulo called my attention to this nice piece from Jason Zweig in the WSJ. Yes in the last 5 years Big get Bigger has been the main trend. USA and Germany have been the big winners for the simple reason that they already dominated many spaces.

Economies of scale have always been a sure way to profits. easier than R&D. if the big guys also invest wisely in R&D they become unstoppable. On the marketing side economies of scale were always huge. Santander can advertise worldwide because they are almost a global brand. For a local company why advertise worldwide?

From today Bloomberg

Peugeot Maker PSA Agrees to Buy GM’s European Brands in $2.3 Billion Deal


Agrees to Buy GM’s Opel Unit
PSA Group is betting that size is the answer in Europe’s saturated car market as it buys General Motors Co.’s ailing regional division despite years of losses.
The maker of Peugeot and Citroen cars will pay 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion) for GM’s Opel unit and its U.K. sister brand Vauxhall, as the French manufacturer bolsters its defenses in a peaking market that’s being transformed by technology, new competitors and Brexit. GM, which is taking a charge of between $4 billion and $4.5 billion, will retain a toehold in the area by continuing to sell Chevrolets in small volumes.




Image result for economics the winners take it all




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Be of Service and you will do well in life

Thursday, March 02, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

“One of SpaceX’s biggest goals, Shotwell said, was to fly as often as possible. The company has never sought to make a fortune off each flight. It would rather make a little on each launch and keep the flights flowing.

Ashlee Vance, Elon Musk: Inventing the Future

do more be nicer, do it cheaply do it faster or just be nicer. That is the formula do do well in life


I am not yet done with Ashlee Vance book but one take i have now is this , if you do something for your customers you will do well. Musk has done wonderful for their customers.

Image result for space x


. Even the comments from readers about the book are good..............

One of the most inspiring books I have ever read. A few life changing points for me:

1) First intro chapter shows how relentless the author was. Great lesson there. He didn't ask for permission, he just went out and wrote it. Said he was going to write it with or without him on board. Which ultimately won Elon's respect since that's how he operates too.

2) Elon and his brother Kimbal coming over at 18 years old from south Africa. Their tactic about picking up the newspaper and cold calling the most interesting people to take to lunch is awesome. I challenge myself to do this now and I think its a great strategy to get out of your comfort zone. I gather he had the idea for pay pal with that tactic - it landed him the bank internship where he discovered the inefficiencies of banking world.



http://amzn.to/2m0wDOx

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Hide behind the paperwork !

Thursday, March 02, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


Ask for British residency!

From the FT
“There are 85 pages to fill in and they ask the same thing over and over again but in a way you never know what the right answer is,” complained Marta Grabinska, who has been waiting six months for a reply. Ms Jozefkowicz, who estimated she spends about two weeks preparing each application, agreed it was “quite confusing”, adding: “For somebody who speaks little English it’s impossible.”
..............

Applicants must, for example, document every time they have left the UK — a record no longer included in many passports because of the EU’s free movement of people. The Home Office also requests a variety of documents spread evenly across the five years to prove employment, including payslips, letters from employers, employment contracts and the like.


They didn't fill the paper properly and have to redo but only in 2019 ! What a country let them leave for good. They should be expelled for good. Nothing good can come from a country that has no courage to say no and hides behind a form impossible to fill! Applicants have to to document every time they left the UK in the last 5 years! This is simply impossible

I watched the movie   I Daniel Blake  and i thought it was an exaggeration but now I know it's true! UK doesn't belong in Europe. It's soviet Union all over again. The paperwork is the most important thing.

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Answers 8

Wednesday, March 01, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Alarm Clock just replace one clock by lamp+dice in the second row

A

10

14,867. That is why Trump will not succeed the difference is too big.



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Quiz 8

Wednesday, March 01, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments







Look at this series: 7, 10, 8, 11, 9, 12, ... What number should come next?
A.7
B.10
C.12
D.13


The average annual  Hourly wage in USA was 58,714 in 2015. what is the number for Mexico? 


4,712
24,007
14,867

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