Are there places where the best always(almost) win!

Thursday, June 29, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: , ,

Why doesn’t fund management conform to the rules of professional sports, where athletes such as Cristiano Ronaldo or Roger Federer consistently outperform their rivals? One reason could be that successful managers attract more clients, and the size of their fund grows. So they have to expand the number of stocks they buy, diluting their best ideas. As the fund grows larger, it looks more likely the overall market, and runs into the iron law of costs.


Buttonwood, The Economist 24th June


We know that in the financial markets and Fund management there is for sure short term persistence or momentum. However long term persistence is non existent. In sports it's not only Cristiano Ronaldo, Federer and Froome that show above average quality year in and year out. In Chess usually the highest rankling playear almost always wins.

In Fund management  The Economist has this to offer

Active fund management may have more of a role to play in other places: emerging markets, for example, where information about the prospects of individual companies is not so widely available...

In my experience there is two ways to do consistently well, to have a better mouse trap (very difficult but possible) there are companies/Managers  that invest more in R &D and have secrets and there are spaces where the information is difficult to get (There is no Bloomberg with everything easily available) and the true specialist that has the database that no one has can demonstrate a persistent advantage. (Emerging Markets, small cap's , and even in the Bond world we see some persistence......

Resultado de imagem para cr7

Read More

0 comentários:

Inequality for Dummies

Monday, June 12, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ,

One guy makes 100 and his neighbor makes 10. difference 90

 next year the world grows 10%, everybody get's a 10% raise

 The rich guy now makes 110   and the poor guy makes 11. difference 99

 Inequality is up ! DISASTER !!!!

 how can we lower inequality?

 if there is a recession the rich guy will suffer much more

 That is the reason communist countries, Venezuela , France , etc.... GDP doesn't grow it shrinks.

 what do you prefer?
Francisco MC
@carneirao101
Read More

0 comentários:

Sometimes cheap will stay cheap forever

Thursday, June 08, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:


Kaplan did not intend to be a collector, but old masters were unfashionable-and therefore affordable- so he started to buy

 1843 Magazine, The man with the most Rambrandts 


Image result for the man with the most rembrandts





Read More

0 comentários:

Leave a city only if you are rich, very rich

Wednesday, June 07, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

Cities nurture anonymity, which liberates people to pursue their dreams. they are magnets for individuals and business.they are diverse, in terms of activities they support, skills they generate, and populations they attract. They create economies of scale and scope. They produce complex networks of exchange, including with other cities. Not least they can supply transportation, communications, water supply, sewerage, energy, health and other services far more efficientely than either rural or sprawling suburban areas.

 Martin Wolf
The divide between larger cities and the rest may be a problem we get used to. Humanity has had millennia of practice. The gap is as ancient as the bible. Rural folk have always resented city ways, just as urban denizens have always looked down on provincials

Edward Luce, FT yesterday


The biggest cause is the changing nature of work. As jobs have shifted from manufacturing to services, so the returns on education have risen. We live in an age of scarce human capital. Most graduates and post graduates prefer to live in larger cities, where they can rub shoulders with their peers. They often have more in common with the denizens of big cities in other countries than they do with their suburban neighbours.

Edward Luce, FT yesterday


The less well-off find it increasingly hard to live in large urban hubs. For the first time a majority of America’s poor now live in suburbs, which are largely invisible top elites.


Edward Luce, FT yesterday


opportunity and options are much bigger in cities. as Ed Luce says the returns of education have gone up big but only in cities.

more about the same

 http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2016/03/how-to-get-better-move-to-big-city.html
Read More

0 comentários:

Big regulation protects existing business !

Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ,

Image result for Exhibit 5: Talk About Defensive Moats!


 This is a wonderful graph from GMO, this is the reality governments are playing the game of the big business. Corporate power has never been greater. In some business you have to have several lawyers to open the door.

 examples:

 Trump paid his own campaign
Gates foundation spends more money each year than the world health organization
Read More

0 comentários:

Why we get Fat & Sick?

Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

“The simple answer as to why we get fat is that carbohydrates make us so; protein and fat do not”
― Gary Taubes, Why We Get Fat: And What to Do About It

“The simplest way to look at all these associations, between obesity, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, cancer, and Alzheimer's (not to mention the other the conditions that also associate with obesity and diabetes, such as gout, asthma, and fatty liver disease), is that what makes us fat - the quality and quantity of carbohydrates we consume - also makes us sick.”
― Gary Taubes, Why We Get Fat: And What to Do About It

“the fatter we are, the more likely we are to get cancer and the more likely we are to become demented as we age.”
― Gary Taubes, Why We Get Fat: And What to Do About It


This is the book but you don't need to read the book, all the conclusions are in the quotes above.

 http://amzn.to/2rZgRcD

we know what to do but we have to do it.! just give it a try.....


Read More

0 comentários:

When winners are taking all, it's often time to buy the winners

Tuesday, June 06, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS:

The one thing that unites everything I’ve been writing about in this paper is the golden rule of investing: no asset (or strategy) is so good that you should invest irrespective of the price paid. If when buying a house the mantra is “location, location, location,” when thinking about any investment (be it an asset or a strategy), the equivalent refrain should be “valuation, valuation, valuation.” We would argue that one of the myths perpetuated by our industry is that there are lots of ways to generate good long-run real returns, but we believe there is really only one: buying cheap assets.

 No Silver Bullets in Investing (just old snake oil in new bottles)
James Montier



Not sure this is still the case? There are huge economies of scale in the internet. If you have more money and you invest it back into the business it's difficult for the biggest not getting even bigger. (Amazon)

The only space where size gets into the results is Asset management, big funds with lots of assets start under performing big time. 


JASON ZWEIG
Mar 3, 2017 8:41 am ET

“Let your winners run” is one of the oldest adages in investing. One of the newest ideas is that the winners may be running away with everything.
Modern capitalism is built on the idea that as companies get big, they become fat and happy, opening themselves up to lean and hungry competitors who can underprice and overtake them. That cycle of creative destruction may be changing in ways that help explain the seemingly unstoppable rise of the stock market.
New research by economists Gustavo Grullon of Rice University, Yelena Larkin of York University and Roni Michaely of Cornell University argues that U.S. companies are moving toward a winner-take-all system in which giants get stronger, not weaker, as they grow.
That’s the latest among several recent studies by economists working independently, all arriving at similar findings: A few “superstar firms” have grown to dominate their industries, crowding out competitors and controlling markets to a degree not seen in many decades.
Let’s look beyond such obvious winner-take-all examples as Apple or Alphabet, the parent of Google.
Consider real-estate services. In 1997, according to Profs. Grullon, Larkin and Michaely, that sector had 42 publicly traded companies; the four largest generated 49% of the group’s total revenues. By 2014, only 20 public firms were left, and the top four — CBRE Group, Jones Lang LaSalle, Realogy Holdings and Wyndham Worldwide — commanded 78% of the group’s combined revenues.
Or look at supermarkets. In 1997, there were 36 publicly traded companies in that industry, with the top four accounting for more than half of their total sales. By 2014, only 11 were left. The top four — Kroger, Supervalu, Whole Foods Market and Roundy’s (since acquired by Kroger) — held 89% of the pie.
The U.S. had more than 7,000 public companies 20 years ago, the professors say; nowadays, fewer than 4,000.


Read More

0 comentários:

A sure way to prevent brain disease and alzheimer's

Friday, June 02, 2017 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: , ,

“The origin of brain disease is in many cases predominantly dietary. Although several factors play into the genesis and progression of brain disorders, to a large extent numerous neurological afflictions often reflect the mistake of consuming too many carbs and too few healthy fats.”
― David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers


“The simple act of moving your body will do more for your brain than any riddle, math equation, mystery book, or even thinking itself.”
― David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers

“U.S. Army researcher Dr. F. Curtis Dohan was among the first scientists to notice a relationship between postwar Europe’s food scarcity (and, consequently, a lack of wheat in the diet) and considerably fewer hospitalizations for schizophrenia.”
― David Perlmutter, Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers


Sugar is the new tobacco. 
Cynthia Kenyon
I try to not eat as much sugar, but it's so hard in our American diet to do that... It's hard to completely avoid. 
Tom Brady


 Even slight elevations in blood sugar have been shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease. 
David Perlmutter

Image result for no sugar
Read More

0 comentários:

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)