The outlook for growth is "sluggish"
Morgan Stanley US Cycle Indicator is topping . It can stay on the upper part of the graph for several years like in 95-2000 period. I guess the message here is the growth surprise is behind us.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the outlook for growth is "sluggish" and it wouldn't be surprising to see corporate spreads widen "somewhat."
My take is that the growth surprise is behind us.
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