Do nothing sometimes is the best strategy
In an odd coincidence, a few days later I learned of a study
focused on decision making and penalty kicks. The analysis covered close to
300 penalty kicks. It looked at both the goalkeepers’ decision in terms of
where they chose to dive, as well as where the ball was actually kicked.
As it turns out, the goalkeeper picks a side and
dives 93.7 percent of the time and just stands in the middle only 6.3 percent
of the time. There was a clear bias toward action. The kicks themselves are
more evenly spread across the net, and here’s the clincher: Almost 30 percent
were kicked to the middle of the net. Without boring you with the numbers, the
result showed that goalkeepers could almost double their save percentage by
doing nothing. In other words, just standing there was the optimal strategy.
What goalkeeper is going to do that? Can you imagine
how silly that would look? Everyone is expecting action. Every other goalkeeper
in the world dives to a side of the goal. Just standing there would be
embarrassing.
From NYTimes
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/13/in-soccer-and-investing-bias-is-toward-action/
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