If a machine can do your job, it will
In an interesting NBER paper (‘The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries,’ NBER WP 18334), it was pointed out that jobless recoveries in the US have occurred in only the middle-skilled jobs, i.e., not the highly- or low-skilled jobs..............................
The high- and low-skill occupations to which employment is polarizing either do not experience contractions, or if they do, rebound soon after the turning point in aggregate output. Hence, jobless recoveries can be traced to the disappearance of routine occupations in recessions.’ I find this paper fascinating, as it partly confirms the findings of work by Auter, who also found this curious fact that the US has lost more middle-skill level jobs. One hypothesis is that the highly-skilled jobs and low-skilled jobs are more difficult to out-source, or be replaced by robots or computers.
From Stephen L Jen (London), September 2012
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