Showing posts with label POLITICS. Show all posts

Being ethical still pays but do well for your customers it's even better

From the great Gave Kal service


In 1939, Franklin Roosevelt famously dismissed reservations about Nicaragua’s brutal dictator Anastazio Somoza with the comment “he may be a sonofabitch, but he’s our sonofabitch.” In the world of foreign policy realpolitik, to a large degree FDR’s doctrine still holds true. Witness, for example, the verbal contortions that US president Donald Trump and secretary of state Mike Pompeo have been forced to pull off in recent days in order to condemn Saudi Arabia, but not too much...

from Bloomberg


The world’s business leaders have suddenly been stricken with a conscience.
After the disappearance and suspected murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, executives who’d been lined up for the “Davos in the Desert”1 Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh this month are getting cold feet. 
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and his peer at Blackstone Group LP Steve Schwarzman, along with BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, Uber Technologies Inc.’s Dara Khosrowshahi and Richard Branson have all sent in cancellations. Credit Suisse Group AG CEO Tidjane Thiam and HSBC Holdings Plc’s John Flint became the latest to shun the forum on Tuesday..................................


The double standard is hardly surprising. Making money has required a certain flexibility on moral issues ever since Joseph taught Pharaoh how to profit off a seven-year famine. Being ethical in business is difficult because being unethical is often lucrative. 



Of course it pays being ethical but the best for a company for a corporate leader is not to fake he is concerned about politics, image, minorities, etc....the most important thing is to do a great service to your clients, to be of service to constantly improve the service and product. Amazon is a great company not only because they are ethical but because they really care about their client and their service. Lot's of companies care about minorities and they don't care about their customers. they will disappear. to go or not to go to Saudi Arabia does't matter. The best for Saudi Arabia was to have the great service of Amazon or Facebook or Google to all their citizens. That would change Saudi Arabia more than skip a conference!

What is the problem with Europe

The great Charles Gave says that two open economies with currency set up by the market should in the long run have the same stock market return.That was the case with Italy & Germany. Until the single currency the Euro the MIB & the Dax were hand in hand.

what happen since the Euro inception? DAX up & MIB sideways

If we left the market forces work in the euro zone in 20 years the best place to build cars will build them all. What is the solution? facilitate the movement of labor and let Italy do only what they are best at. Turism/Leisure & Food

what happens with the people that used to build FIATs they must be subsidized a bit.




If two market economies allow currency flexibility and free flowing capital, their total stock market returns should, over time, be about the same. How could it be different? If one country’s corporate sector earns higher returns, its equities will outperform and attract capital from the lagging market. The impact will be to push up the currency of the high-return market and pull lower that of the low-return one. Over time, changes in competitiveness will cause returns on invested capital across both jurisdictions to equalize.
Charles Gave

The warren Buffett strategy


low vol stocks + leverage = Beat the market


Image result for low volatility anomaly graph



From Wikipedia

The low-volatility anomaly[Note 1] is the observation that portfolios of low-volatility stocks have higher risk-adjusted returns than portfolios with high-volatility stocks in most markets studied. The capital asset pricing model made some predictions of return versus beta. First, return should be a linear function of beta, and nothing else. Also, the return of a stock with average beta should be the average return of stocks (this is easy to show given the first assumption). Second, the intercept should be equal to the risk-free rate. Then the slope can be computed from these two points. Almost immediately these predictions were challenged on the grounds that they are empirically not true. Studies find that the correct slope is either less than predicted, not significantly different from zero, or even negative. Also, additional factors are predictive of return independent of beta.[1]
Black proposed a theory where there is a zero-beta return which is different from the risk-free return. This fits the data better since the zero-beta return is different from the risk-free return. It still presumes, on principle, that there is higher return for higher beta.
The low-volatility anomaly has now been found in the United States over an 85-year period and in global markets for at least the past 20 years.[when?][2][3][4]
Research challenging CAPM's underlying assumptions about risk has been mounting for decades.[5] One challenge was in 1972, when Jensen, Black and Scholes published a study showing what CAPM would look like if one could not borrow at a risk-free rate. Their results indicated that the relationship between beta and realized return was flatter than predicted by CAPM.[6][Note 2]
Shortly after, Robert Haugen and A. James Heins produced a working paper titled “On the Evidence Supporting the Existence of Risk Premiums in the Capital Market”.[Note 3] Studying the period from 1926 to 1971, they concluded that "over the long run stock portfolios with lesser variance in monthly returns have experienced greater average returns than their ‘riskier’ counterparts".[
Image result for low volatility anomaly AQR


Live in Portugal if you are not a local........





In Portugal the Government as a dual system if you are Portuguese you pay 50% marginal tax above 80,000 euros /year plus 11% Social Security  plus 24% VAT plus ......If you are a new resident in Portugal you pay 0% for 10 years or 20% if you get income locally.

This has make real estate skyrocket and make life difficult for Portuguese who live in Portugal. Big taxes and high real estate prices.

Cambridge Analytica scandal for dummies

I was trying to figure out what is the scandal? No one can explain to me.... people just speak about manipulation and some other buzzwords.

i guess for a political campaign to send emails trying to influence your vote it's what they do. President Obama apparently used the internet with great efficacy.

So this is the scandal from A to Z

In June 2014, a researcher named Aleksandr Kogan developed a personality-quiz app for Facebook. It was heavily influenced by a similar personality-quiz app made by the Psychometrics Centre, a Cambridge University laboratory where Kogan worked. About 270,000 people installed Kogan’s app on their Facebook account. But as with any Facebook developer at the time, Kogan could access data about those users or their friends. And when Kogan’s app asked for that data, it saved that information into a private database instead of immediately deleting it. Kogan provided that private database, containing information about 50 million Facebook users, to the voter-profiling company Cambridge Analytica. Cambridge Analytica used it to make 30 million “psychographic” profiles about voters.


So this Guy Alexander Kogan developed an app with a quiz and when you dowloaded it to your Facebook it stole your messages, photos and of all your friends. Smart guy!

Fault 1- Facebook should not let this to happen but Facebook contests

 “No systems were infiltrated, no passwords or information were stolen or hacked,” tweeted one Facebook executive. For its part, Facebook says it learned about Kogan’s private database in 2015, when it removed his app and demanded that he and any of his partners delete the data.

Then Kogan sold this database to Cambridge Analytica and they profiled  30 million users of the 50 million data set's. This guy loves fishing, this one is a cyclist, this one......

Then they emailed people knowing a bit about them. I guess the idea must be 

if you know that person A thinks 1,2, and 3 you send an email saying if you think 1, 2 and 3 please vote for TRUMP don't hesitate

for person B that thinks 4,5, and 6 you send a different version.

is that it?  I thought there was something criminal here but that was not the case.

Conclusion for me

To me Facebook is a wonderful tool to keep up with your friends
Facebook will change some things and this situation will never happen again
different breach of data will happen but not this one
if you don't want your pics all over the place don't publish anything

Advice

when someone approaches you and they know a bit about you be careful! 






With populists in the driving seat, Italy is heading for trouble


From The Economist

With populists in the driving seat, Italy is heading for trouble
Both chambers of parliament are hung, with no easy or quick way for anyone to achieve a majority. More alarming is that half of the voters—fed up with high unemployment, stagnant wages, uncontrolled immigration and a self-serving political class—voted for the two main populist parties, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Northern League. Both are hostile to the EU and especially the euro, and both campaigned on lavish tax and spending promises that Italy cannot afford.



Beppe Grillo, a part-time comedian who began his political career with the cry of vaffanculo! (fuck off!) to the establishment is the light behind the 5 star movement!

Italy shows that people vote as if it does not matter. The Capitalist system takes care of everybody so we can vote in any crazy person that when in power can’t do nothing crazy 

Beppe Grillo, a part-time comedian who began his political career with the cry of vaffanculo! (fuck off!) to the establishment is the light behind the 5 star movement. Poor Italy!

i think people are a bit snozzy almost everything is getting cheaper, we can fly low cost, we can use UBER, food is cheaper in the supermarket the only problem in the world is that no ones needs us to work. Besides programmers & techies no one is really needed anymore perhaps football players and entertaining people. all the rest are interchangeable.

this is why people vote in crazy people as if it did not matter. The big job of Governments is to keep people entertained and busy. 

Sorry no Inflation in the horizon

From Bloomberg Mliv, Mark Cudmore



Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Agriculture Subindex Total Return (DJUBAGTR), the index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CITR. The index is composed of futures contracts on
coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal,sugar and wheat. It reflects the return on
fully collateralized futures positions and is quoted in USD.


Ever-cheaper food may wreak havoc for markets next year. It's clear from the Markets Live macro assets survey on WHIS that the consensus is for higher benchmark yields in 2018. That suggests a belief inflation will pick-up.

But food prices are a key input to CPI globally and they continue to fall. Technology and science are making agriculture increasingly efficient and there are plenty of gains still to be made globally. The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex closed at the lowest level since records began in 1991. And it's unlikely to see relief soon given that the weakness has caught speculators offside. Friday's CFTC data showed that the combined net-long positions for agricultural products increased more than 10-fold in the week ending Dec. 5.

And it really matters. Falling food prices were cited as the core reason why China's weekend CPI release came in below expectations. On the other side of the world, Brazil's latest CPI print came in below all economists' forecasts. This year has seen the measure drop below the target range for the first time since 1999 after the 7th-straight decline for food prices.

The world is a better place!


America First it’s easy with a weak USD


From Bloomberg:

The proposed overhaul will be the third major change to the U.S. tax code over the past 40 years. The Dollar Index plummeted 16% in 1986 after Ronald Reagan's reforms reduced the top income-tax rate to 38% from 50%. After George W. Bush cut taxes on dividends in 2003, the currency slid 15%.



The Swiss are making a killing!

The swiss (Swiss national Bank) are making a huge profit. Good for them.


From The Great Gartman letter. We have written many times about the fact... and it is a fact... that the Swiss National Bank has effectively become both the nation’s central bank and one of the largest, if not indeed the very largest, hedge funds in the world. The process began several years ago when the SNB swore that it would do what it could and using what methods were available to it to weaken the Swiss franc relative to the EUR and to the US dollar. It has succeeded, until recently, creating Swiss francs out of the thinnest of air, and selling those Francs vs. the EUR and the dollar, and then taking those EURs and dollars to buy European and US equities and debt securities. The SNB’s balance sheet is a CHf 813 billion (and given that the CHf and the US dollar are effectively at parity one with the other that CHf 813 billion is the same as $813 billion) and this is very nearly 125% of the Swiss GDP.