Pennsylvania's Amish Community May Have Already Reached Herd Immunity

Tuesday, March 30, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 From Zero Hedge 

The center caters to the Amish and has more than 33K patients. While both communities initially complied with the stay at home orders, they reopened churches last spring, where they went back to sharing communion cops and "holy kisses" (described as a special church greeting).

As the virus tore through the community over the summer, by August, the area was reporting daily positivity rates (the share of those tested who test positive) north of 20%. Cases ebbed headed into the fall, but soon started to climb again as the weather turned colder.

Over the past 6 weeks, the parochial medical center hasn't reported a single case of COVID. Eric Lofgren, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Washington State University, said herd immunity is possible but rare. "It would be the first general population in the United States that’s done it," Lofgren said.

After 1 year of COVID it's obvious that lockdowns are no better than doing nothing. No government is going to backtrack, they will double down , they will say lockdowns did not work because them were too soft. Hard lockdowns would have worked.  No country accepts the Asian approach, test, test & test  and if you are infected you are isolated , and only people infected are isolated. That was against liberties , but to lockdown everybody and close businesses and destroy the economy that is ok. 

Of course for the movements the worse the better. If things are ok no one wants to ear about the politicians. These days politicians are everyday on the TV. 

Sacrifice now, to gain later.

Thursday, March 25, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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The way to get A is not to strive for A directly. Invest in some tools, take some steps around to strive for A later. Go to college and make nothing to gain more later.I believe Amazon did exactly that, they invested in process, machines, systems instead of going for profits immediately. 

From Seeking Alpha, Brenda JubinThe Dao of Capital: Austrian...

“the roundabout is in practice a counterintuitive path—of acquiring later stage advantage through an earlier stage disadvantage—nearly impossible to follow.”
― Spitznagel, Mark, The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World

"Sacrifice now, to gain later. Sacrifices are necessary, to improve the future, and larger sacrifices can be better"

Jordan Peterson

Best marketing line ever!

Tuesday, March 23, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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There is only one way... to get anybody to do anything

Thursday, March 18, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There is only one way... to get anybody to do anything. And that is by making the other person want to do it. Dale Carnegie

Freedom is nothing but a chance to be better

Thursday, March 18, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Freedom is nothing but a chance to be better. - Albert Camus

If you live in Venezuela you can't improve, the system wont let you. you just try to survive you just want to get medicine for your kids etc... You can read if you can buy a book but you are in distress, you are fighting for the survival.

If you live in a free country you can improve, you can read, you can travel, you can learn a new language, you can do Yoga and learn new tricks. Freedom is a chance but not a guarantee you have to work and use that freedom.

Don't complain and just try to improve a bit every day, do something difficult every day. I have a friend that told me that in Lebanon you don't have access to a passport. It' something that is very difficult to get. Sometimes I forget how good is to live in Europe.

"It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction."

— Warren Buffett

There are two theories in hiring people!

Tuesday, March 16, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 There are two theories in hiring people

1.Find the candidate who lacks major weakness (but doesn't have major strengths )

2.Find a candidate who has major strengths ( even though he has major weaknesses)

.................High achievers tend to have major weaknesses. people without major weaknesses tend to be mediocre.

Guy Kawasaki

“Acquiring the right talent is the most important key to growth. Hiring was - and still is - the most important thing we do.”

- Marc Bennioff, Founder, Chairman and co-CEO of Salesforce

I don't have a rule like Guy Kawasaki , I think it's difficult to access if anyone is good and where he/she is good. So what do I do?  (I hired more than 50 people in my life and done more than 500 interviews) 

I believe in Frank Sinatra song

If I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere

I hire people that have done well in their life in anything, in sports, in the scouts, having a summer job, winning small competitions etc... a winner or a competitive person will do well anywhere. I pay some attention to the quant scores and not so much to the interview. In fact I read that the interview most of the times is worth zero or even negative. (no surprise here)

The best predictor of the market is

Thursday, March 11, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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The best predictor of the market is the market itself

A Bottom in GOLD

Thursday, March 11, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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I think the cost of everything one day will revert to substitution cost. The cost of extracting GOLD is USD 1000 or something like that.  So I am not a perma bull in GOLD. However almost everything in the world is getting higher, real estate, bitcoins, stocks, old car's, paitings, schools , the cost of a coffee , haircut etc... etc.. I see GOLD going up in the future with everything else. 

There is plenty of bubble left.

Tuesday, March 09, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 We are on a short term sell signal on Nasdaq

we are in a Bull market in almost everything.

In a bull market we buy the dips.

If you are an investor stay the course. If you are a trader be out of the market since we are on a sell signal since last week.

I don't have an idea where things are going but if I had to guess, we will end in a bubble and the bubble is going to be in the place where are more excess. We are not going to have a bubble in de Dow Jones, we are going to have a bubble in the Nasdaq. That is my view. Bitcoin also is going to explode higher. Yesterday Citigroup made a 52 week high I don't think Citi can double.

I think the market is going to print a bottom this week. Don't jump the gun. There is plenty of bubble left.

I usually don't buy IPO's

Sunday, March 07, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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A man has an ailing horse. He takes it to the vet and asks: Can you help me ? sometimes my horse walks just fine and sometimes he limps. The vet replies: No problem when he is walking fine, sell him.

From Jacob L Taylor

when the seller is the management or the top shareholders beware. They know more than you. Take that in mind when you bid.