Thought of the Day

Monday, April 30, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When the times are good you hire sales people when times are bad you hire R&D

The Economic historian Alexander Field concludes that the 1930s were the “most technologically progressive” decade of the twentieth century…..Although many see it as an easy target during budget cut-back’s, spending on research and development actually doubled over the course of the 1930s. More research and development labs were opened in the first four years of the Depression than in the entire preceding decade seventy-three compared to sixty-six. The number of people employed in research and development quadrupled, increasing from fewer than 7,000 in 1929 to nearly 28,000 by 1940, during a period of double-digit employment overall. Spending on R&D doubled over the course of the 1930s. from The Great Reset: How the Post-Crash Economy Will Change the Way We Live and Work, Richard Florida

Richard Florida explains that peaks and valleys are part of the lifecycle of any society as "obsolete and dysfunctional systems and practices" collapse, replaced by "the seeds of innovation and invention, of creativity and entrepreneurship." The First Great Reset occurred in the 1870s, the Second in the 1930s, and a Third is now developing.

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Different vs better ?

Thursday, April 26, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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One of his core points is that we tend to confuse capitalism with competition. We tend to think that whoever competes best comes out ahead. In the race to be more competitive, we sometimes confuse what is hard with what is valuable. The intensity of competition becomes a proxy for value.
In fact, Thiel argues, we often shouldn’t seek to be really good competitors. We should seek to be really good monopolists. Instead of being slightly better than everybody else in a crowded and established field, it’s often more valuable to create a new market and totally dominate it. The profit margins are much bigger, and the value to society is often bigger, too.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/opinion/brooks-the-creative-monopoly.html?_r=3&ref=opinion

PS This idea from Peter Thiel, is the core idea from the book Blue Ocean Strategy. I believe these days that our kids are wiser to study something different than to study what everybody else is studying even if they are on top of the ranking. If you go to the same schools and learn the same tricks you are a commodity easily replaceable. Also Al Ries has touched in this in all of his books.

Blue Ocean Strategy: How To Create Uncontested Market Space And Make The Competition Irrelevant
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Thought of the Day

Thursday, April 26, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Selling to people who aren’t searching for what you sell?

The portion of the population that haven't bought from you or your competition yet is not waiting for a better mousetrap.
They're not busy considering a, b and c and then waiting for d.
No, they're not in the market. They don't believe that they have a problem that's worth the time and money they think it's going to take to solve it.
As a result, smart marketers don't market to this audience by saying, "hey, ours is better than theirs!"
If this group thought that they had a solvable problem, the would have solved it already.
No, they won't respond to a better-than-them pitch. Instead, they're much more likely to respond to a new statement of their problem and a new statement of the solution. Don't ask them to announce that they were wrong when they decided that they didn't need a tablet, a survival kit or an anti-impotence drug. Instead, make it easy for them to make a new decision based on new information.

Seth Godin


http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2012/04/selling-to-people-who-havent-bought-yet.html
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Thought of the Afternoon

Wednesday, April 25, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Creativity

I think to be creative we have to lose sight of shore this is the key.

Man cannot discover new oceans unless
he has the courage to lose sight of the
shore." - André Gide



Cartoon from SimoleonSense
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Thought of the Day

Tuesday, April 24, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Don’t pick a fight with an old man. If he is too old to fight, he’ll just kill you

Jeff Carter, Wisdom from the farm
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Thought of the Day

Monday, April 23, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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You pay a Great deal too dear for what’s given freely

William Shakespeare, The Winter’s Tale, Act 1, Scene 1
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Thought of the Day

Friday, April 20, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 3 Comments

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Can Atheists Be Happy? Being religious confers big benefits. Time and again, studies have shown that people who have a religious faith are more likely to be healthy and happy than those who lack one. Religious people may even live longer. Go to church and you could outlive your atheist friends by a good seven years, as we report in this issue (see “Healthy Skepticism,” by Sandra Upson). Yet doctors don’t counsel patients to take up Christianity, say, as a way of beating back mental or physical distress. Even if such advice were socially acceptable, it wouldn’t work. Most people can’t just go out and find religion if the idea hadn’t resonated with them before. But finding out the secret ingredients behind religion’s powerful effects might reveal something that could be prescribed.
One clue: religion makes the biggest difference for well-being in places where life is hard, suggesting the belief system, or the camaraderie that accompanies it, provides support when times are tough. But if you are affluent, and things are going well, you may be perfectly happy without this psychological safety net, studies show. Being religious also seems to be most beneficial if you live among mostly religious people, indicating it is way of fitting in socially. In countries where few people believe, the psychological benefits of faith disappear.
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/streams-of-consciousness/2012/04/12/can-atheists-be-happy-and-other-answers-from-scientific-american-mind/

PS Just arrived from Washington where I attended a DB Hedge Fund conference. I loved Washington, George town, New Museum, rooftop of the W Hotel and the Potomac park are very nice the conference that I attended was very well organized. Not a good idea to go early to the airport. Dulles airport is not good.

PS2 Today is my 45th birthday. I feel in shape 2 weeks before Transportugal Mountain Bike race.
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Thought of the Day

Friday, April 13, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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From the New Yorker

Ps I am going to Washington to see some Hedge Funds next week. It’s my first time there. I hope to have time to visit something (Not Obama).
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From IBD, Dental X-rays, Tumours Linked.

Thursday, April 12, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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PS I wouldn't want to be an X-ray technitian.
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Thought of the Day

Thursday, April 12, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There should be a law against making a career out of politics.

Most of the current generation of political leaders in the UK have gone straight from
university into politics and they have no clue about most of the issues
facing the people of our country and, even worse, they don’t seem to care.

All they want to do is to cling on to their seat and you don’t usually keep
your seat if you implement policies which are right for the country in the
long run but immensely unpopular when first implemented. Wasn’t it
the great Theodore Roosevelt who uttered the famous words (and I
paraphrase): You can do what is right for the country or you can do
what is right for the people but you can’t do both. It has never rung
truer than now.

Niels C. Jensen
4 April 2012

PS I guess if it's right for the country is right for the people in the long run. In Portugal we have a political party that has the slogan "As Pessoas estão primeiro" (people first). Of course they don't like Portugal and they don't care for the future of the country. They just want to win the next election whatever it takes. I don't like any party in Portugal.

Note: I don't care about politics and i don't vote because i don't believe in this system where you rob Peter to pay Paul.
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Thought of the Day

Tuesday, April 10, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I don’t know who wrote this but I agree 100%. In Hedge Fund conferences I attend I keep earning questions about style, size, geography, etc… people want to box a manager too much. I try to figure out the manager and tolerate/”embrace” a bit of style drift. In fact people want to control/regulate/legislate everything and the results are not good.
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Thought of the Day

Tuesday, April 10, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From my father, I learned the importance of working sincerely at things to which I had committed myself, and to persevere untiringly even in the face of little progress. Koichi Tanaka


PS Market is oversold, and Apple keep’s going up! I think we might rally again, the leaders are intact.
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Thought of the Day

Monday, April 09, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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This is a problem, of course, for all parents, not just affluent ones. It is a central paradox of contemporary parenting, in fact: we have an acute, almost biological impulse to provide for our children, to give them everything they want and need, to protect them from dangers and discomforts both large and small. And yet we all know — on some level, at least — that what kids need more than anything is a little hardship: some challenge, some deprivation that they can overcome, even if just to prove to themselves that they can.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/18/magazine/what-if-the-secret-to-success-is-failure.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

PS I think we live in a world where there is too much of everything (except some natural resources). In this kind of envoirment you need to be different to have a chance. If you are a commodity you will be without job. In this situation we need to provide for a different education for our children. If they do the same as everyone they will be a commodity (Commodity = many are like them and can be replaced with no diferrence) and they will have a difficult life.
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Thought of the Day

Wednesday, April 04, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes

 Winston Churchill

PS I liked this cartoon from The New Yorker

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Thought of the Day

Wednesday, April 04, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Keep it simple not always a good advice!


My view is that you are better if you have a brand. Germany have some good brands on top of robust products

Complex products + brand =Good competitive position

Commodity products  + no Brand = China is going to kill you (Already did ....)

 
  
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Thought of the Day

Monday, April 02, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The only competition worthy a wise man is with himself

Anna Jameson

PS I did my first Mountain bike competition of 2012. It didn’t went well it was very technical with a lot of rock’s and steep fall’s. I finish 21st with 12 hours almost 3 hours more than the winner. It was too much a diference. I burned 9100 calories. I did eat well. At one point i run out of water, after a while i found a farm. I knocked at the door but no one was there. I jump the fence and refill in a garden tub!
The day was full of up’s and big downs, I thought about giving up several times but I did limp until the finish line with João Sebastião from BTT Loulé that helped me. I need another competition fast to clean my head.

http://www.siim.pt/btt/lisboa2012/?accao=geral&prova=Ultra_Maratona

I leave a pic from last year Transportugal.

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Thought of the Day

Monday, April 02, 2012 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Overall, our findings suggest that controlling the style drift of a fund manager does not necessarily result in higher performance for investors.


Russ Wermers



University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2024259

PS I think this is not just on Finance, a lot of boundaries, controls and rules prevent good performance and normal functioning of systems. Soviet Union was regulated and was broke. Regulation is very good for the regulators.

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