All Socialist countries are poor

Wednesday, March 29, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

I am based in Portugal , Portugal has always criticized Ireland capitalism etc....They don't care about the poor etc.... Of course minimum wage in Ireland is 1900 and Portugal 880. Of course GDP growth in Portugal is stalled for many years but there is one thing that Portugal beats all countries. The amount of taxes and size of taxes starting at low levels. If anyone wants to study what taxes do to an economy pls visit us. 

All Socialist countries are poor but it takes time.



  • Ireland gdp per capita for 2021 was $100,172, a 17.27% increase from 2020.
  • Ireland gdp per capita for 2020 was $85,420, a 5.55% increase from 2019.
  • Ireland gdp per capita for 2019 was $80,927, a 2.12% increase from 2018.
  • Ireland gdp per capita for 2018 was $79,250, a 13.26% increase from 2017.




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There are no experts

Sunday, March 26, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments


If you have a group of friends and each does his thing, you get very good information , you know what works. The world is moving in the direction of everybody does the same thing and that is dangerous. We can end badly. Fortunately not everybody was vaccinated for COVID perhaps we will learn something soon.


"The tragedy of our time is the monoculture of ideas: all people are forced to believe the *same* bullshit." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb


“It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.”
― Franklin D. Roosevelt, Looking Forward


trial’ and error is a tremendously powerfull process for solving problems in a complex world. While expert leadership is not.
 Tim Hartford


The only experts I know are Plumbers , toilette did not work and now....

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What one advice you will give to teens?

Wednesday, March 22, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments


From :

Sobriety Chad

Become a professional disappointer

Find your moral code and adhere to it This will disappoint people… good Not drinking with your friends will disappoint them… good Get comfortable disappointing people Your life will flourish

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This is good advice

Tuesday, March 21, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

 You must choose between your attachment and happiness. You cannot have both.


To ask your kids to be happy is not enough
to be decent persons and to appreciate all the small things in life that is the trick.





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The Good Old Days: They Were Terrible!

Tuesday, March 21, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

 All people in middle class neighborhoods today enjoy a better standard of living than John D. Rockefeller.

Data brings rationality in a world filled with negative headlines.


The "good old times" were not good old times, and a relapse to old conditions would be disastrous to both the servant and the master. It would sweep away civilization.

Andrew Carnegie


The world is not perfect but in many countries we now have

clean water
long life
healthy life
choice (perhaps too much)
Free time
You can move to another place (not every country you have passport)

The only thing that surprises everybody is the paradox of Choice.

The paradox of choice stipulates that while we might believe that being presented with multiple options actually makes it easier to choose one that we are happy with, and thus increases consumer satisfaction, having an abundance of options actually requires more effort to make a decision and can leave us feeling unsatisfied with our choice.


That is why many studies show that arranged marriages are equally happy or more than with love based marriages. Some studies say that love in love marriages in India does exactly what it does in love marriages here: it starts high and declines fairly rapidly. But love in the arranged marriages they examined started out low and gradually increased, surpassing the love in the love marriage about five years out. Ten years into the marriage the love was nearly twice as strong.

Perhaps if you really spend time choosing your partner you want that to be perfect since you put so much effort in the discovery process. anything less than perfect you get disappointed. Perhaps making the best of what life brings is a better strategy.

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I have been wrong

Tuesday, March 21, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

Oil is down almost 50% in 9 months.


BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY BUYS 7.9 MILLION OCCIDENTAL SHARES $OXY


As you know I believe that


1.we are consuming more oil every year. (growth of 1 million barrels per day). In the last 20 years oil consumption that used to be 80 million barrels /day now is 101 ....

2.When you invent a new form of energy the previous one (Coal , wood , ....) is still in use and at the highest levels ever.

3.The world needs energy to live, people want to use i-phones, electric cars, electric bikes, electric watches even all the kitchen gadgets are electric. If the poor become less poor the energy consumption will explode.

4.The easy oil in Pennsylvania 130 years ago was easy oil, it just exploded higher and we just had to collect. that easy oil we spent 1 barrel of oil to extract 70 barrels of oil. now we have to go to the deep sea, shale oil, to dig , to make explosions etc... now we are expending 3 barrels of oil to extract 20 or 30.


If something has demand and it gets more difficult to extract the price should go up with time. 


I think if we buy an oil company and keep the oil under the ground and extract in 30 years that will be a good storage of wealth.




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You don’t need mentors, you need action

Monday, March 20, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

"You don’t need mentors, you need action."

@naval


Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy.

Dale Carnegie


An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.

Ralph Waldo Emerson


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I don't want be short

Thursday, March 16, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

With Bitcoin going up big and The Economist with a cover on banks you don't want to sell now.



Rothchild is best known for the quote: "Buy when there is blood on the streets, even if the blood is your own."
















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Failure

Thursday, March 16, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments




 “Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently.”

— Henry Ford

"One thing that's important in entrepreneurship is you just have to be right once. You get many many shots on goal. But you really only have to be right once."

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Risk free has risk after all

Tuesday, March 14, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

Is there a place for Bitcoin & Gold?


This time bank portfolios are riddled with long duration bonds like US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities.

Wait... what? We were told those were "risk-free"? What's the problem?

The problem is always the same when you do something without thinking just because you think your only duty is to respect the regulations you might die. Better strategy is never go near the line of regulations but do something different than the majority. Do something that makes sense.

Perhaps to have stocks of companies that deliver a necessary service or have some bitcoin or even Gold besides public debt. Even oil companies do a necessary function and you are well paid for it. when the mainstream avoids oil& gas but use oil & gas in their everyday life there is an opportunity.

Risk free is not without risk


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T Bills pay 4,5% and banks pay 0,5% on deposits

Monday, March 13, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

 

“We’re not going to do that again. " - Yellen on bailouts


YELLEN: DEPOSITORS DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT LOSING ACCESS TO THEIR MONEY


Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.
Otto von Bismarck


what happened in Silicon Valley Bank in one graph. 


T Bills pay 4,5% and banks pay on deposits 0,5%. Clients are starting to pay attention






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Why invest in Private equity?

Wednesday, March 08, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

 Why invest in Private equity?

By Vartika GuptaTim Koller, and Peter Stumpner

The number of public-company listings in the United States peaked in the mid-1990s, at nearly 6,000, but that number has fallen by about half over the past 20 years.1 The number of IPOs has also gone down sharply in this same period.

From Hamilton Lane,

There are only 2,800 public companies with annual revenues greater than $100 million. That's a small slice of corporate America, where there are 18,000 private businesses of that size.Apr 14, 2022.........................

Another indirect way to look at how companies are growing in private markets is through the rise of “unicorns,” those companies reaching private market valuations of $1 billion or more. The first unicorn was Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company, in 2005. Since then, there are more than 900.4 A study of unicorn companies found that roughly 60% of them stay private for at least nine years.

There is a good rational to invest in Private equity because companies stay private longer and because most of the economy is private 18,000 vs 2800. For me the reason why private equity makes sense is because it's private. managers of those companies are 100% aligned with shareholders. That is also the reason family controlled companies do better than  management controlled ones.

This days managements pay attention and comply with the prevailing narrative even if there is no solid reason to do it. That is a big cost because most of the narratives pass and disappear. Why adapt our strategy to the dominant theory if it keep changing?


Even a genius cannot completely resist his Zeitgeist, the spirit of his time.

Viktor E. Frankl

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Are you middle class?

Friday, March 03, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments


If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die

Warren Buffett













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The good time to do it you don't want to

Friday, March 03, 2023 Francisco 0 Comments

 

In history, the evidence is overwhelming: Stock market bottoms happen, and then stocks jolt upwards while the economy keeps getting worse - sometimes by a lot and for a long time. 

Kenneth Fisher




If there's a recession, I'd buy stocks. That's when you make money: when markets are spooked.

Ben Stein



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