We will be higher in one year

Friday, March 27, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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I put this entry on the 12th of March the market is now higher but I suspect we will go down before coming back for good. If you are a trader get out and buy in May/June bottom if you are here for the long run just stay the course. If you have cash waiting to invest, wait for a better moment.

 https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2020/03/there-are-not-many-panics-when-you-see.html



In an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday, billionaire investor Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio), who founded the Connecticut-based hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, predicted that the novel coronavirus outbreak will cost U.S. corporations up to $4 trillion, while global corporate losses will amount to around $12 trillion. He added that "a lot of people are going to be broke."

 I took this graph from the great Gary Savage service. I don't think we will recover almost all the crash 

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Everything I've learned about life: it goes on.

Thursday, March 26, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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In three words I can sum up everything I've learned about life: it goes on. 

 Robert Frost
There is a big FOG everywhere

 Even I that usually only see the bright side of everything  lately I have thoughts of If this change the world forever! 

 But after some moments of confusion I read the phrases that I used to send to my friends and my conclusion is even if everything changes ( It wont) people would be happy with any new reality. People adapt and are as happy as they were before.

 we are going to see some horrible numbers for the economy
we are going to get cheap tests that allow you to test yourself often
We will see unemployment skyrocket
Robbery and caos will resurface again in some countries
Some bankruptcies
We will see more government unfortunately
Stock market will make another lower bottom before coming back
Innovation will not end
There will be a drug to solve COVID-19 sooner than later
there will be more jobs in hospitals to take care of the sick
People will need to help friends and family. Not every business will survive
Be kind and Nice to everybody
Soon some companies will start prosper . I don't guess I react and follow. My suspicion is that the move to online, net, cloud etc... is going to accelerate. 

 people will take advantage of what they can do, take a walk in the park with family and friends. 

 people are happy with any circumstances and take advantage of anything. One of the best books I have read Man's search for Meaning

Success is to live with a good face, take what life brings you even suffering (yes life is suffering) and be of use to other people. An hobby is a success, to build a company is a success to dedicate your life to some person is a success and to face very difficult problems like health problems is a success and can be an aim ......


“Don't aim at success. The more you aim at it and make it a target, the more you are going to miss it. For success, like happiness, cannot be pursued; it must ensue, and it only does so as the unintended side effect of one's personal dedication to a cause greater than oneself or as the by-product of one's surrender to a person other than oneself. Happiness must happen, and the same holds for success: you have to let it happen by not caring about it. I want you to listen to what your conscience commands you to do and go on to carry it out to the best of your knowledge. Then you will live to see that in the long-run—in the long-run, I say!—success will follow you precisely because you had forgotten to think about it”
― Viktor E. Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning


What man actually needs is not a tensionless state but rather the striving and struggling for some goal worthy of him. What he needs is not the discharge of tension at any cost, but the call of a potential meaning waiting to be fulfilled by him. (Viktor Frankl)

“The one thing you can’t take away from me is the way I choose to respond to what you do to me. The last of one’s freedoms is to choose one’s attitude in any given circumstance.”
― Viktor E. Frankl 


STAY SAFE I HOPE THIS BLOG ENTRY IS HELPFUL. HAVE A WONDERFUL DAY
Reg
Francisco

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Make it Count

Sunday, March 15, 2020 Francisco 1 Comments

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I think this will end up being very good for the world  and for me. No disrespect for the ones that are suffering but I think some social life ( most things with more than 6 people) was just crap and a waste of time. I can ride my bike and I have my kids. I I am sorry for the older that are isolated and alone, I am sorry for my mother but this will end well. I am going to read a lot and do some sport. Yes make it count. 

 I hope if we are radical we can exit this in 1 month. The people who have salaries to pay and no clients I am deeply sorry. They will come back. The years after WW II where the best . After a crisis we will have the best years.
“Life is a series of natural and spontaneous changes. Don't resist them; that only creates sorrow. Let reality be reality. Let things flow naturally forward in whatever way they like.”
― Lao Tzu


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There are not many panics when you see one use it!

Thursday, March 12, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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"The coronavirus panic is dumb." - Elon Musk, March 6, 2020
The fragility of a Complex world

 When, a couple of lifetimes ago, I played rugby, I never got injured. That’s because I was a little overweight, and slow. Meanwhile, the guys who were fast and agile ended up tearing their knee ligaments or straining a hamstring or sustaining another of the many injuries one can pick up on a rugby pitch. Why do I bring this up? Because the question investors must confront today is whether our global economy is a slow but resistant lumbering beast of burden, or a finely tuned machine which has now been thrown off its axis.

 Charles Gave, Gave-kal

  I think the world now is not Complex is optimized you find who is the cheapest supplier and you outsource everything to China for example (That is fragile) the world is very optimized and fragile. This CoronaVirus shall pass and shall be  a big business to someone who come up with some medicine. 

 In the meanwhile some companies will suffer because there is not overlap, if you can do a job with just one person you have just the minimum. No one is ready for something that can go wrong and that is fragile. some companies have very thin profit margins anything that disrupts their business can kill them. We will have plenty of casualties. The banks will suffer as always.

 all said even with the Virus that will be solved very soon, the market will rebound and the world will go on as usual. Enjoy the sun and do a good walk with a nice music.


 don't worry This too shall pass

 there are not many panics in our world . Use when you see one

The watershed event that dragged the U.S. into the World War II is the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7, 1941. A person who bought U.S. blue chips on the day of Pearl Harbour and held them till end of 1945, when the World War II ended, would have generated returns in excess of 25 percent annually.





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Historic Buying Opportunity

Friday, March 06, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments

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This time is different? NO 

 Next week can be down , most probably

 one year from now we will be at high time highs yes

Man will conquer the Corona very soon. no doubt of that. The world will be a better world after Corona. And a more safe world. The Virus has the days numbered.






Image



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