Market Timing

Wednesday, November 24, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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“There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.”

- Jesse Lauriston Livermore.

The big funds with Billions of assets always say that you can't market time. One thing I know the big funds can't move, they are too big. They can't  but small investor can avoid turbulence and disaster. don't buy into the big houses speech. What is market timing, it's to  step aside time to time.

In Mark Spitznagel book he gives this example:

you have a dice game where

if 1  you gain 50%

if 2    you lose 50%

if 3,4,5 or 6 you gain 5%

average is 3,3%, positive

In the Real world , you don't want the average you want the geometric average. (The idea is if you make 50% in the first draw your capital goes from 1 to 1,5, next play you are going to play with 1,5)

if you invest USD 1 and 1 comes, you end up with 1,5 (up 50%) , if 2 is the next number your account goes to 0,75 (lose 50%) , if 3, 0,79, if 4 0,83, then 0,87 and finally when 6  show's up you end up with 0,91

despite a positive arithmetic average the geometric average is negative! you lose 9%!!!

Conclusion: do everything to avoid a big loss, if you are a airline pilot avoid crossing turbulence zone , always avoid turbulence.

If you are an investor and want to know more about this, what to do and what not to do contact me directly.

our corporate email is 

geral@lisbonfamilyoffice.pt

If we don't answer promptly is because we got a lot of emails.

IF you want to save some time our idea to solve this problem is this

If you panic,  panic fast! 

Do what you love is really a bad advice

Monday, November 22, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 First, “do what you love” rarely creates money fast because more than likely, not only are you doing what you love but thousands of others love doing the same thing.

I am not Ok with this

Friday, November 19, 2021 Francisco 1 Comments

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I am not a kid and I don't like to be treated like one.

It's better for my health not to smoke but government warns of the risks and I decide. Tobacco can have side effects on other non smokers despite this it's not illegal to smoke. It's your decision. Tobacco is a big cost to Healthcare but people can decide what to do.

No one wants a risk free world, a risk free world is a prison

I don't want to live in a Prison

People can eat until they die it's ok

People can sky dive it's ok

People can drink until they die it's ok

People should live their lives as they seem fit. The Government can warn of the risks but it's all.

Every experiment of letting Goverment decide what is best has been a disaster and don't forget Government has the Monopoly of violence. Government should be limited, Government must be contained. That was the reason for the Constitution. But if constitution can be suspended is worth zero.

Difficult to figure out what to do.

“When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty.”
― Thomas Jefferson

Genius is 1% talent and......

Thursday, November 18, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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"Genius is 1% talent and 99% percent hard work..."
— Albert Einstein

Message to socialists

Monday, November 15, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 Message to socialists -

Not yet

Wednesday, November 10, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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Bubbles go much further than anyone expects

What the wise man does in the beginning......

Monday, November 08, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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The greatest of all investment adages states that “what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” 

However if you really have to be in Crypto now looks like a good time not to look fool.

self-education will make you a fortune

Friday, November 05, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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“Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty. Anyone who keeps learning stays young.”
― Henry Ford

“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.”
― Jim Rohn

NO ENREGY; NO PARTY .......

Wednesday, November 03, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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Energy Transition? What

Unfortunately, the more fundamental evidence doesn’t support that hope that global energy use will decline meaningfully in the foreseeable future. The global population increases by about 1.1% each year. Each of those 80+ million people uses energy. The standard of living differential between economically less developed countries and the more advanced economies is stark, and standards of living do rise, which entails more energy consumption.

Murray Stahl. Chairman/CEO/Chief Invsmt Ofcr, Horizon Kinetics LLC 

My Take:

Unless we are going to change the way we live, or we will prevent to poor to improve their lives we will need all sources of Energy. ALL

Even on 2020 the world consumed 91 million oil barrels a day. 91 million!!!

Steve St.Angelo says the world to consume 100 million barrels a day is like driving a car at 100 miles an hour, you can but it's not good for your car and your safety. We are going too fast. The world is going too fast.

Since solar & wind are so unproductive technologies we can't replace oil & nuclear even if we cover the world with solar panels. 

These Renewable energies are not renewables, everybody  knows that solar panels go to scarp every 15 years and wind blades become ineffective sooner than that. We need to mine cobalt, lithium to build these panels they are not renewables. 

Conventional oil peaked in 2005

Unconventional oil is doing things that are really not good for the envoirment , injecting water and sand and fracking etc.... productivity is falling rapidly

Deep water drilling is difficult and expensive

solar & wind are unreliable and are not renewable

If we want to keep living the way we live and permit the poor to have what we got one day we will need to:

1.Invest in saving energy technologies

2.Invest in Nuclear (but nuclear needs lot's of rare materials & huge investment )

3.Invest in small solar & wind 

4.Invest in fossil 

Despite this I believe we are going to slow down , yes we are going to slow down. No Energy no party, you can invest in all the energies with high EROI that you will make money. Even in wind and Solar very low EROI you might make some money.

how is this going to happen? The price of energy is going up if we try to stop investments in the most productive energy (oil, nuclear etcc... ) it will be faster. 

Play every match like it may be your last

Tuesday, November 02, 2021 Francisco 0 Comments

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 “Play every match like it may be your last,”

Novak Djokovic

"How ridiculous and how strange to be surprised at anything which happens in life"

Marcus Aurelius (Meditations)

From Ron Baron quarterly letter

“The Blink of an Eye.” Rabbi Elliott J. Cosgrove. Park Avenue Synagogue. 

Rosh Hashanah. Jewish New Year. 5782. September 7, 2021. On Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year 5782, the Rabbi of New York City’s Park Avenue Synagogue where many of my friends are members, delivered a “who shall live, who shall die” sermon several thought I should read. The sermon encompassed two chilling stories that illustrate the fragility of life and make you ask “Why?” and “What if?” In the first story, a rising college senior and member of that congregation was in a car accident in Chicago. The accident was so serious he had to be taken from his vehicle with the “jaws of life.” Miraculously, the young student escaped with only bruises! Regardless, he was taken to a nearby hospital for an MRI to be certain there was no concussion, which proved to be the case. However, the MRI, unexpectedly, detected a rapidly growing brain tumor that would have soon become inoperable threatening that young man’s chances to survive. The student was operated upon and was in the Rabbi’s congregation in September. If the student had not been in the accident, it is unlikely he would still be alive. In the second story, two weeks after the accident in the first story, a rising college junior, also in Chicago, was in his car driving when he was hit by a stray bullet. The bullet severed his spinal cord from which there could be no recovery. Three days later that young student lay paralyzed in a hospital bed, unable to breathe without a ventilator and able to communicate “yes” or “no” only by blinking his eyes responding to an alphabet board. With his family and friends at his bedside, he signaled his mom by blinking that he was ready to die. The Rabbi then told his congregation that it was hard to understand the meaning of these random events for which only seconds meant the difference between life and death. In the first instance, were it not for the accident, the tumor would not have been discovered, and the student probably would have died. In the second, if the student had taken an extra second to tie his shoelace, fumbled for his keys, or taken a call on his cell phone, he would still be alive!