Don't give up

Thursday, February 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Much is made of genius and talent, but the foundation of any life where you get to realize your ambitions is simply being able to out-last everyone through the tough, crappy times — whether through sheer determination, a strong support network, or simply a lack of options.


jeffjlin.com

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Computers

Thursday, February 28, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Computers are incredibly fast accurate and stupid. Human beings are incredibly
slow innacurate and brilliant. Together they are powerful beyond imagination.
 
Albert Einstein
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Europe

Wednesday, February 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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  • As a Frenchman, as a European, I want a diverse Europe in which each nation is managed by its own elected people. If the nation chooses to be poorly managed—so be it, this is what democracy is all about. I am not interested in a Europe where the standard of living falls precipitously for a large part of the population, nor am I interested in humiliating what were once proud countries in the hope that they desert their old deities and accept a new god.And neither do I want to be administered by unelected technocrats delegated by the northern Europeans on the flimsy pretext that my own politicians are useless; they may be hopeless, but I am entitled to have them that way.

    What the eurocrats offer under the banner of "reform" is nothing of the sort but just an increase in their power and the destruction of the incredible diversity which made Europe an endlessly fascinating place. 

    It is time to return to market prices and democracy and to accept that technocracy cannot work. I love Italy more and more. Indeed, for the first time in years, I can envisage a situation in which I feel bullish on Europe.

    Charles Gave from Gave kal about the Italian Elections

    I agree with him, Italy just show the Eurocrats that they can't impose rules that no state wants to obey, before the euro we had a valve and we can live with that (devaluations). The euro rules are like stating that all the students can only study 1 hour a day. With this system only the smart pupils can have success. With the normal system a dumb student can study 10 yours a day and have good marks too. All the European rules that try to standardized all countries are not the good for the inefficient south.
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Does this make sense?

Tuesday, February 26, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The best advice I ever received came from my dad, Don Clifton. It was actually a piece of simple, yet profound wisdom that has shaped my life. 'Your weaknesses will never develop,' he told me, 'while your strengths will develop infinitely.'"

Jim Clifton, CEO of Gallup


I agree 100% with this quote, because of specialization we should be the best in one field and our life would be easier. Therefore we should invest the most where we have a small natural gift. I am always encouraging my oldest son to bet everything in Maths. It's better to be the top dog in math's and average  or even below average in all else than to be a bit above average in everything. I do this because he has good marks in math without a lot of effort.
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What is my job?

Monday, February 25, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Your job as a trader is to make the line [your equity curve] go from bottom left to top right. That's it. Don't get hung up on other supposed "mandates". Protect your capital and the direction of that equity line.

Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Steve Clark

http://financetrends.blogspot.pt/2013/02/lessons-from-hedge-fund-market-wizards.html

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UK is no longer AAA

Monday, February 25, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Moody’s and S&P respectively as well as the current ratings outlook.
Moody’s – Aaa Rating
Outlook
Australia Stable
Austria Negative
Canada Stable
Denmark Stable
Finland Stable
Germany Negative
Isle of Man Stable
Luxembourg Negative
Netherlands Negative
New Zealand Stable
Norway Stable
Singapore Stable
Sweden Stable
Switzerland Stable
United States of America Negative
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A masterpiece of understatement

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our damnedest to get them going again. I trust you are not in too much distress.[

 Captain Eric Moody in 1982 in a BA plane that was really falling into the ocean (Happy ending, the engines were re-started)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/captain-announcement-after-all-four-engines-failed-2013-2#ixzz2LrWZ94SY

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Why do people drive less?

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Since 2005 the growing trend from the 70's and i guess before that broke.
When a big trend brakes like this something big must be happening! In the Calculated Risks Blog they mentioned that after 55 years old people drive less. The price of oil is not a good reason because this trend had ignored for 30 years.
I really don't know?


Vehicle Miles
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Brain Damage unlocks the Artist

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Brain damage has unleashed extraordinary talents in a small group of otherwise ordinary individuals.

 Savant skills, Miller argues, emerge because the areas ravaged by disease—those associated with logic, verbal communication, and comprehension—have actually been inhibiting latent artistic abilities present in those people all along. As the left brain goes dark, the circuits keeping the right brain in check disappear. The skills do not emerge as a result of newly acquired brain power; they emerge because for the first time, the areas of the right brain associated with creativity can operate unchecked.

 http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-02/when-brain-damage-unlocks-genius-within?single-page-view=true


If this is true it's our left part of the brain that "censors" or prevents our abilities to present themselves. I wonder if we can let our abilities show up without the damaged brain?


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Can we destroy the world in this century?

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction

What technology, or potential technology, worries you the most?
Bostrom: Well, I can mention a few. In the nearer term I think various developments in biotechnology and synthetic biology are quite disconcerting. We are gaining the ability to create designer pathogens and there are these blueprints of various disease organisms that are in the public domain---you can download the gene sequence for smallpox or the 1918 flu virus from the Internet. So far the ordinary person will only have a digital representation of it on their computer screen, but we're also developing better and better DNA synthesis machines, which are machines that can take one of these digital blueprints as an input, and then print out the actual RNA string or DNA string. Soon they will become powerful enough that they can actually print out these kinds of viruses. So already there you have a kind of predictable risk, and then once you can start modifying these organisms in certain kinds of ways, there is a whole additional frontier of danger that you can foresee.
In the longer run, I think artificial intelligence---once it gains human and then superhuman capabilities---will present us with a major risk area. There are also different kinds of population control that worry me, things like surveillance and psychological manipulation pharmaceuticals.
In one of your papers on this topic you note that experts have estimated our total existential risk for this century to be somewhere around 10-20%. I know I can't be alone in thinking that is high. What's driving that?
Bostrom: I think what's driving it is the sense that humans are developing these very potent capabilities---we are doing unprecedented things, and there is a risk that something could go wrong. Even with nuclear weapons, if you rewind the tape you notice that it turned out that in order to make a nuclear weapon you had to have these very rare raw materials like highly enriched uranium or plutonium, which are very difficult to get. But suppose it had turned out that there was some technological technique that allowed you to make a nuclear weapon by baking sand in a microwave oven or something like that. If it had turned out that way then where would we be now? Presumably once that discovery had been made civilization would have been doomed.
Each time we make one of these new discoveries we are putting our hand into a big urn of balls and pulling up a new ball---so far we've pulled up white balls and grey balls, but maybe next time we will pull out a black ball, a discovery that spells disaster. At the moment we have no good way of putting the ball back into the urn if we don't like it. Once a discovery has been published there is no way of un-publishing it.
Even with nuclear weapons there were close calls. According to some people we came quite close to all out nuclear war and that was only in the first few decades of having discovered the new technology, and again it's a technology that only a few large states had, and that requires a lot of resources to control---individuals can't really have a nuclear arsenal.




Very long and disturbing interview, it's more probable the we destroy our world ourselves than a natural disaster. We experienced natural disasters for thousands of years and we are here. We only lived 50 years with nuclear power and almost got destroyed. Biotechnology (Designed new diseases and Artificial intelligence can kill us fast)! 




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Useful Advice

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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3.When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend.  Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life.  Most people wait for others to prove their value.  Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start.  Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.

 http://www.blackstone.com/news-views/blackstone-blog/blackstone%27s-byron-wien-discusses-lessons-learned-in-his-first-80-years

 Very good advice from Byron Wien. I can't do the number 5, I don't sleep a lot. He mention nothing about food/nutrition and sports. I believe the way to improve the brain if through the body. If you are in shape your brain is also in shape. Points 2 and 4 i try to practice every year myself.
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1 Quote

Sunday, February 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The deepest principle in human nature is the craving to be appreciated.
William James

PS If we figure out this we can cover lot more ground than if we criticize or find fault in other people. Praise something and the rest will follow.


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What do do Now?

Thursday, February 21, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bridgewater

 We are now in the bottom curve. Usually deposits pay 5% and high yield 10% (2 x more), now deposits pay 0,5% and high yield 5% (10 x more). Should you buy high yield?

 http://www.bpistrategies.com/docs%5C2013_01.pdf


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Some quotes 21st of february

Thursday, February 21, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Martin Wolf, “Those who believe the eurozone’s trials are now behind it must assume either an extraordinary economic turnaround or a willingness of those trapped in deep recessions to soldier on, year after grim year. Neither assumption seems at all plausible.” 

 Gary Savage,
So does anyone really believe that the Fed has any intention of slowing down QE any time in the near future?
Well maybe the stock market temporarily does… just long enough for stocks to drop down into a daily cycle low and create enough of a panic (right in front of the sequestration deadline) so that the Fed can enlarge QE rather than shrink it.
At this point I think that the stock market probably put in its daily cycle top yesterday. However, it’s already very late in the cycle at day 34, so I would expect this to run its course rather quickly, probably ending when politicians kick the sequestration can down the road by the end of the month.

From a friend,

News regarding the economy are coming from the ministry of Foreign Affairs because the economy is a foreign affair to this government’

It concerned Laurent Fabius, ex minister of finance and current minister of foreign affairs, oddly enough he has been making announcements to the press with regards to GDP growth forecasts.


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Diet

Thursday, February 21, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Today i am back to 72,4 kg
yesterday was a good diet day
I ate ratatouille & lentils for breakfast
Green tea in the morning
a Very good steak & vegetables for lunch (no bread & no rice) & lemonade
Eat some lupins (Tremoços) before dinner
Soup & big salad with Hemp/Flax/sesame seed's
tea before dinner
yesterday was my rest day, zero sport
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Making money with money getting harder every day

Wednesday, February 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Making money with money getting harder every day

Recent Bill Gross Tweet, Bill Gross is the Bond King

PS I don’t agree with Gross. Making money with a job is even harder (Labour is mostly a commodity with excess supply on almost every profession). Making money in deposits & Bonds is almost impossible and you can even lose. However you cam make money doing other different things.

What do I do? I am a professional investor, i run money in BPI since 1988, but I don’t trade on my own account. I buy mostly BPI funds.

What kind of Funds do i buy? Normaly I don't buy sector or very specific funds like the China Fund. In these kind of funds I must be on top of my investments, because the China fund is going to move up if China goes up and down if China corrects. So if I buy the China fund I must time the market.

I just buy funds where the managers can change and change often. I want a manager that trades for me. This are the king of funds that I want. The mandate must be wide and the manager must adapt and change. 

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change

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Resigning

Wednesday, February 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Typical lazy kraut
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Don't eat beef

Saturday, February 16, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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So what accounts for the sudden popularity of Zilmax? Zilmax is a highly effective growth drug, and it makes cattle swell up with muscle in the final weeks of their lives. And despite concerns within the industry, the economics of modern beef production have made the rise of Zilmax all but inevitable.
The beef industry has been shrinking for decades, a problem that can be traced to cheap chicken. Poultry companies like Tyson Foods figured out in the 1930s and ’40s how to raise chickens in a factory-like system.



I am eating more vegetables because of the bike, this is another reason not to eat beef!
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Diet

Friday, February 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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73,4kg and 14% fat
yesterday i ate Ratatouille & Lentils for breakfast
In the morning Green tea
I eat Rice with Duck for lunch & Red wine 8no Diet Lunch)
Eat one muesli bar before workout
burned 1300 calories in 1h30m bike workout
Eat veggie soup+grilled salmon&Broccoli for dinner

 Today i am going to car load a bit. Tomorrow i hope to do 6 hours in the morning before lunch.




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84% of Customers are on-line

Thursday, February 14, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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ING said retail customers in the Netherlands have embraced new technologies for their banking needs at a faster rate than expected, reducing the need for traditional bank branches.
Some 84% of those customers' transactions were made online in 2012, up from 57% in 2008. Traffic to mobile-phone applications increased to 25 million visits a month in 2012, nearly triple the 9 million in 2011. Moreover, 60% of sales of saving-and-loan products were made through the Internet, the bank said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324162304578301252027247198.html

I am sure the number of transactions in the net are going trough the roof. However i would like to know if the  net is good for routine transactions and the big ticket decisions are made face to face.

I would tend to think that people will do the big decisions face to face. If this is the case companies should hire good sales.
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Pensions

Thursday, February 14, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Let’s start with a few paragraphs that appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Carl Demaio writes this week:
Consider California, where just 10 individual pensioners will cash $50 million in pension checks from state and local governments over the next 25 years. Already some 30,000 retired California government employees pull in pensions higher than $100,000 a year. One retired librarian in San Diego receives a $234,000 annual pension. Beach lifeguards in Orange County are retiring at age 51 with $108,000 annual pensions plus health-care benefits.
Note that those benefits are cost-of-living-adjusted. But the problem is not just in California; it is nationwide.

 John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - How Not to Run a Pension


Current Governments both in Europe or in the USA can't say we don't pay. That is not an option because it affects many people. Printing is the way to go. To change the entitlements we would need a revolution and the scraping of all the existing contracts. I don't see this happening.

 Money printing and eventually rampant inflation is the way. If you have some money (Savings) one day you can't have deposits or cash at hand, you have to buy stuff/Physical Things
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Why take an MBA?

Wednesday, February 13, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I came across an interesting article called, An MBA: The founder’s recipe for failure, where the author, Jay Bhatti claims that to take an MBA doesn't help to be an entrepreneur.
While this line of thinking works well in private equity or hedge funds, where you can analyze years of data about a company and model out how the companies’ profits will be impacted by changes in the market or changes in the structure of the company, you cannot do this type of analysis when trying to innovate. When it comes to innovation, an MBA is probably the worst training you could have.
The MBA program is designed to teach people to look at prior data and patterns in order to identify future outcomes. In the real world, this just does not work when it comes to new markets or innovation.
I didn't take any MBA but my view about higher education is the following.
1.You don't get better at University, what you learn there in 2 years you could learn reading and living in the real world.
2.The people who go to Harvard, etc...were already the best before they entered (they are cherry picked with multiple tests & interviews)
3.It his very useful to carry an Harvard/Yale diploma. It helps to open doors.
4.The people you meet there are probably going to help you during your career (You should miss no parties, only classes)
5.Some of the ideas you learn in an MBA are probably going to harm your performance (Copy the best in class, etc....)
In conclusion, if  you want to work for someone else it's good to carry an MBA from the best schools. If you are going to set up your own business don't do it, because you don't improve, you could get contaminated by some people with no real experience and you would be big time indebted.
If i had to take 2 years off to study i would like to do the Great books program at St.John's College.
“Enlightenment is man's emergence from his self-imposed immaturity. Immaturity is the inability to use one's understanding without guidance from another. This immaturity is self-imposed when its cause lies not in lack of understanding, but in lack of resolve and courage to use it without guidance from another. Sapere Aude! 'Have courage to use your own understanding!' - that is the motto of enlightenment.” -- Immanuel Kant


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No Train

Wednesday, February 13, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Last year i finish 3rd, 1st Podium ever! I am the one behind. This was at km 150 in a 240 mountain bike race.


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The tip of Europe, after the Ocean America

Wednesday, February 13, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Cabo da Roca, After 3 hours i didn't drank a lot. Not wise! I will pay it later.
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What to do in a bubble? Participate of course

Monday, February 11, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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For example, a prolonged period of low interest rates, of the sort we are experiencing today, can create incentives for agents to take on greater duration or credit risks, or to employ additional financial leverage, in an effort to “reach for yield.” An insurance company that has offered guaranteed minimum rates of return on some of its products might find its solvency threatened by a long stretch of low rates and feel compelled to take on added risk. A similar logic applies to a bank whose net interest margins are under pressure because low rates erode the profitability of its deposit-taking franchise.

Professor Jeremy Stein, governor on the Federal Reserve Board, February 2013




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Hong Kong to me is a surprise

Saturday, February 09, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The countries that are on top eventually they have their labour costs & currencies expensive and the countries in the bottom are cheap. Your should spent holidays in the bottom half (Only India for me)
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Diet

Thursday, February 07, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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This morning 73,9 kg
No big change from yesterday
i have to run to do some blood tests for my year Check-up
I can't eat nothing this morning
i will post later


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Nº1 is a great spot

Thursday, February 07, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Odey Asset Managemnt in London

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India looks good (Not bad to be vegetarian)

Thursday, February 07, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Diet

Wednesday, February 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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74,5kg, 10,8% fat & 21,5 BMI
I ate Black Beans+Ratatouille+Broccoli =200+200+100=500
Drink some Green Tea mid morning
Ate for lunch 1 Slice of Grouper 300
Big portion of Greens 200
Some  Red Wine 200
Green Tea at mid afternoon
1 Small plate of Lupins before dinner 100
for dinner one veggie soup 200
1 big green salad & Hemp Seeds+Flax Seeds+Lemon &Olive oil=300

 total calories in 1800
Rest day today, no trainning

 Even with the wine i should lost or maintained my weight (73kg ) from yesterday. I guess tomorrow it will adjust!

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What you should do in life?

Wednesday, February 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Excess supply is the root of deflation

 A.Gary Shilling

 When you choose what to do make sure your friends are not choosing the same. Be different if you want to have a job.
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Alkaline diet

Wednesday, February 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I am drifting to an Alkaline diet. I will post but so far so good.

I am feeling great to eat green! I want to see if this is good to bike competition. I need to feel strong and not bonk (hitting the wall). Saturday i will have a strong workout i will post.







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Inflation

Wednesday, February 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Since 1749, wholesale prices have risen 1.3% per year on average, but in war years, including the Cold War and the more recent War on Terror in the Middle East, the average increase was 5.8%. In contrast, in peacetime, prices actually have fallen 1.2% per year on average.

A.Gary Shilling, from the best newsletter Insight

My thesis is that there is too much of everything, to much supply and the conclusion is deflation, unemployment and poverty! The way out of this is to be different, don't try to be the best but different.



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Confiscation of income from the prudent

Wednesday, February 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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In recent years if you have deposits you don't have a lot to live on anymore. The savers, or the prudent, are being robbed by the Government!

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Diet

Tuesday, February 05, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I just started dieting & posting in the Blog because when i don't post i make a lot of mistakes. My target now is to be sub 70kg by race day. 
73 kg, 13,7% fat and 21 BMI
yesterday i ate
Ratatouille & black beans for breakfast 150 calories + 200 calories
drink some green tea in the morning
no snack's
ate sashimi with some rice with a friend. Drank 1 miso soup. 400 calories
no snack's in the afternoon
ate 1 Dried Fig 100 calories before workout.
i was at the gym from 18h30 until 20h, did a strong workout 1200 calories burned
dinner was a veggie soup+ big green salad with Hemp seed's&Flax Seed's 400 calories
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Why people don't spend?

Monday, February 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship.

Ben Franklin

PS since these days taxes are very high the expression makes a lot of sense. I am paying now 54% marginal IRS. So each 1 euro i spent i need to earn 2,17 euros. These days with the Government in between i don't feel like spending. I want to freeze until taxes go back down again.
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Education

Monday, February 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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"Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune."
Jim Rohn
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