If the markets don't go up soon we are in trouble

Friday, November 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I am very worried about the market dynamics, it looks like we are going down. But all the data points out that good times are coming next year. (see jason Goepfert below)

 i will stick to the market action. If the markets don't go up soon we are in trouble

 From Jason Goepfert:

 The S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.

Other years since 1969 that have seen this dynamic typically showed good returns over the next year. Most impressive was the risk/reward – the S&P rallied more than 21% on average at its best point over the next year, while declining an average of only 4% at its worst point.




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Like near the ends of the bear markets in 2002 and 2008.

Thursday, November 29, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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we are not at the end of a Bear market for sure!  but sentiment is very bearish very negative. you don't want to sell now ......

From Sentiment Trader.com
Put interest
Over the past 8 weeks, the smallest of options traders have focused so much on buying puts as a percentage of their total option volume that the only times that can match it were near the ends of the bear markets in 2002 and 2008.






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Christmas Comes Early ?

Thursday, November 29, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he and other policy makers continue to see a “solid” outlook for the U.S. economy, while noting that interest rates are “just below” the so-called neutral range.

From Gave Kal, The most cherished gifts often come in small packets, and investors duly cheered just two small words yesterday by the Federal Reserve chairman. In a speech, Jerome Powell said policy rates were “just below” the neutral level. That was a big change from a month earlier when he said they were “a long way from” the not-too-hot-not-too-cold level. This suggests that the pace of interest rate hikes may lessen, while on the same day data was released showing a highly profitable US corporate sector that is still investing.


People are still skeptic about the market . 



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It's stupid to be pessimistic now

Wednesday, November 28, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I guess it's stupid to be pessimistic now when the smart money is bullish/optimistic 

 however i will wait the action in the next few days, i want to see if the market can survive after the G20 meeting

 we are not out of the woods yet


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Education is the key to Progress ?

Tuesday, November 27, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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NO I don't think it is

 USA the average is in the bottom but if they have a good top 5% it's enough

 it's better to have a top elite than a top average. 

 YES



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success in trading is inside you.....

Monday, November 26, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Los que son buenos jugadores en algo lo suelen ser en casi todo.
Aitor Zarate
Don't be afraid to give your best to what seemingly are small jobs. Every time you conquer one it makes you that much stronger. If you do the little jobs well, the big ones will tend to take care of themselves.”
― Dale Carnegie


I am a great believer in this if you are good in something probably you are good in everything. that is why the small things are important do well the small things and the big things will fall in place. when someone don't put the dishes properly in the washing machine usually other areas in life are a mess.


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Almost a BUY

Monday, November 26, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Bitcoin is reaching a good buying point. USD 3000 is a good start

I still think soon USD will go down hard (Deficits of 1 trn a year will have a price!!!) and everything will go up. stocks, bitcoins even real estate. The only way to clean huge amounts of debt is to inflate


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Why Communism ALWAYS fails

Friday, November 23, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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People like to dream of striking it big

 i sometimes dream of buying a Porsche 911 or having a Horse farm....

 in Capitalism only a small number of people strike GOLD but it in communism/socialism no one does

 there is no hope

 everything is grey forever

 just fight all the time



No one plays the lottery if there are no winners 
Seth Godin...
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Black Friday was every day

Friday, November 23, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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someone send me this ! once you pass through communism usually you never go back!

 Found a funny thing, but not sure if to Poles only. In communism times (especially last 15 years) there was almost nothing in the shops, supplies were coming in erratic way, almost everything was rationed (like in war times, you had special bonus only for limited volumes of various purchases like meat, sugar, fuel, etc etc). So permanent, long queues in the shops were something very inherent to Poles' daily lives. You had the impression that you were queuing all the time, without even knowing what will come with the delivery, and if there would be sufficient amounts of that to get any chance to buy something. I found a photo from that times, accompanied with a very contemporary comment: 'In old times Black Friday was every day'



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Look at the USD to see when things change.

Thursday, November 22, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Get Out Now: SocGen Releases The Most Bearish 2019 Forecast Yet

"We see further downside potential to global equity indices for the next 12 months. The spectre of a US recession in early/mid-2020 would impact equity markets in 2H19."




My view is different from Soc Gen when the USD starts going down again and it will (TRUMP has 1 trn deficits in the cards ) all risk assets in the world would start to go up. Look at the chart below when the Dollar Index was falling stocks go crazy when USd starts recovering stocks go no where and EM stocks go down big.

 Look at the USD to see when things change.



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I was surprised !

Wednesday, November 21, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Morgan Stanley CEO Says He's Not Surprised by Market Correction



  • James Gorman sees impact of monetary tightening, politics
  • Says Morgan Stanley well able to deal with market turmoil
By Erik Schatzker and Cormac Mullen
(Bloomberg) -- 
Tighter monetary conditions worldwide and political discord mean Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman is not surprised there is an ongoing market sell-off.
I was surprised because the market did a breakout to new highs on October 3rd and in the same month turned down. That is not normal as as such it was a mistake not to cut risk at that time. I was wrong on that. If something is out of normal we should pay attention

 now the situation is the following the Nasdaq did break the October lows (2nd graph) sentiment is improving but we are in a deep pocket of air the market can keep falling more.

 The Dow and the S&P did not break the October lows yet and their graph is more constructive. Dow is down 9,75 since the all time highs.

 I am looking like a fool my scenario did not pan out it doesn't look like we are going to have a rally until the FED meeting on the 19th. Usually when i look like a fool the market is about to turn however it's legitimate to cut risk NOW  I am going to do it on a personal level

If the market turns around and rally's i will change course again and look like a fool......

 i don't care

 i know that 10 years from now the market will be much higher but the market at the moment does not look nice. 

 EXIT all or a bit but act

 Note: if the markets have two big days up in a row with volume i will re-enter (IBD method)










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All time highs before the next FOMC meeting ?

Monday, November 19, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There is a good chance the SPX tests all time highs before the next FOMC meeting on the 19th that has been the path before every FOMC meeting.

this graph is not updated but last week the smart money was confident. Usually it's not smart to bet against the smart money.


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I am starting to be worried about the markets! ummmmmm

Thursday, November 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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We might find a bottom soon

Wednesday, November 14, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I think the reason for this bull market is Technology:

  new ways of doing things, new cures for disease, better ways of doing more with less, self driving cars etc.... That is intact. 

 however if markets start going down for some reason , trump, China, Italy etc.. it could be a self fulfilling proposition so we must watch the bottom of this range. it it brakes it's better to exit.




Graph From Ciovacco Capital










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If you need a beautiful moment !

Monday, November 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I hope you like it !




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Anything is possible

Monday, November 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The market are at an important juncture! Very dangerous. This week it’s very important in my view. Markets did all times highs in the end of September and that is very bullish but the market turned back in October(not a good sign) I thought perhaps it was the election in US. Now we have  passed the election. We need a gap down today and a reversal. That would nail it.
My central scenario is still a year end rally (good time for that) and a run pass the all times highs very soon. the weekly graphs are looking good.

but 

absence to rally+time+USD getting strong = ummmmmmmm

I never seen a top done when so many people are afraid. But don’t forget anything is possible in the markets.

we had a violent correction in October we should rally strongly from a correction like this. This is what i expect.
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simple Rule

Friday, November 09, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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When Corporate spreads are below moving average, probably going down you make the most money in equities when it's above like now it starts to be dicey. I will pay attention to this.

 but sometimes this is an early signal 

 in 2002 spreads were starting to go down because economy was in trouble and stocks lost 23% (s&p )
spreads start going up in 2006 and 2006 was still ok equities up 13%
spreads are going up in 2018 and i think it's still ok 

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Live like a king

Thursday, November 08, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Bloomberg:

Greek pensioners have seen their payouts slashed so much, some of them are moving to one of the poorest countries in Europe.
Take George, 75, for example. After his wife died five years ago, he rented out his apartment in Thessaloniki, the country’s second-biggest city, packed his bags and moved to Sofia, Bulgaria’s capital, where he says his monthly 800-euro ($905) pension allows him to “live like a king.”
“Of course there are difficulties with adjusting and friends,” said George, who didn’t want to give his surname, fearing he’ll be pursued by Greek tax authorities. “But with the money I have, I can return to Greece often, and I also have the opportunity to travel.”
Greece, which is among retirement destinations for other Europeans, is finding its own citizens -- like George -- are now looking to live out their senior years in the country’s cheaper northern European Union neighbor after seeing their pensions cut at least 20 times during its protracted debt crisis.









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Coast is clear

Thursday, November 08, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I think we have the conditions to reach the all time high in November. there is going to be a rush to buy, lot's of people are behind now.

 after that we might have the melt up scenario in 2019. 



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With so many people still fearful how can this possibly be a final top?

Wednesday, November 07, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Gridlock may prove better for markets than if Republicans had got another clean sweep.
Gavekal

I think it’s to earlier to say what is going to happen. The markets are in a delicate position more red is very dangerous. The benign scenario is that we bottomed 28 October and we go up from here. Often markets don’t like uncertain and the elections are behind us, it really doesn’t matter who wins just the fact that it’s over is a plus.  The coast is not clear yet. My scenario is still a melt up in 2019 but I keep my eyes open. If it goes up I buy if it goes down I sell.

I saw a study ( stat ) that the market goes up much more in the days congress is not in business than the days they legislate. The markets don’t like new laws . the best would be for politicians to stay still and quiet.

Singer found that in aggregate, the S&P 500 Index performs better on days both houses of Congress are out of session versus days when both houses of Congress are in session. There is also a decrease in volatility as measured by standard deviation.[1]
Congressional effect management found that the S&P 500 Index had a daily annualized price appreciation of 0.31% on days Congress was In session from January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2008. Over that same time span there was a 16.15% annualized price gain on trading days Congress was Out of session.




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The end of the Party?

Monday, November 05, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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IF QE was very bullish for the asset prices the end of QE from mid 2019 should do the opposite? As you know i think we might have a climax before the end! a melt up. i don't see euphoria in this bull run.why should equities go up?because good times bring more good times in a Virtuous cycle


From Chris Solarz, Cliffwater Weekly Macro News



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If you are thinking about buying equities now it's a good time

Friday, November 02, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Chop until Elections and then.............

Friday, November 02, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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“If you can't do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.”
― William H. McRaven



perhaps we might have a pause when we get to all time highs in December ! after that it's going to be like in the 2nd half of 1999, up up up 





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