I don't buy this

Tuesday, February 27, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I know that the price of old car's , jewelry some painting but not furniture have been goin up forever. however the cost of preserving, cleaning securing this things is not zero.There is a negative carry. if you have 50 old cars perhaps it's ok to have a garage and a personal mechanic however if you have just 2 old cars these costs should be big.



Resultado de imagem para economist passion index
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Technology will win everywhere !

Monday, February 26, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From National Geographic mag
The Netherlands has become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like.

 One more reason to marvel: The Netherlands is a small, densely populated country, with more than 1,300 inhabitants per square mile. It’s bereft of almost every resource long thought to be necessary for large-scale agriculture. Yet it’s the globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by value, second only to the United States, which has 270 times its landmass. How on Earth have the Dutch done it?..........................................

 Since 2000, van den Borne and many of his fellow farmers have reduced dependence on water for key crops by as much as 90 percent. They’ve almost completely eliminated the use of chemical pesticides on plants in greenhouses, and since 2009 Dutch poultry and livestock producers have cut their use of antibiotics by as much as 60 percent.
R&D is the best investment ever. Seeds & pesticides increase the yields on farming but greenhouses and artificial light bring yields to a completely new level. The price of food will keep going down.

Technology is the force that makes scarce abundant.


Largest Food Exports by Country (Value of Food Exports 2014 USD)




Picture of an aerial view of a farm house with greenhouses to the horizon


Picture of a nighttime view of greenhouses lit bright yellow
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Too many people using index Funds?

Friday, February 23, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I sincerely hope that someday the SEC makes hedge funds available to all investors. Everyone can benefit from these strategies. And the traditional long-short equity fund is a lot less exotic than a double-inverse volatility ETN.
Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein took all kinds of guff for saying that he and other bankers were doing “God’s work.” I’m actually going to lightly endorse his comments in the context of hedge funds, while leaving God out of it. Hedge funds, in the process of trying to get stupidly rich, do a lot more to enhance price discovery than any other financial actor. The crazy market efficiency that people enjoy is largely due to unregulated private investment partnerships. Not to mention helping investors big and small realize their goals.
It’s true—the conventional wisdom is pretty much wrong about everything.


John Maudin

 I don't think Index funds are a problem yet. I only see two small problems with indexing if they get bigger.
1.Index Funds tended to invest in the bigger/established/yesterday despite the future expected returns. Indexing don't care for the the new thing because it's small with low market cap.
2.If the Index funds don't go to the shareholders meetings and demand a certain attitude from the Board & main executives perhaps the company executives get a bit lazy 
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Why should stocks go higher from an already high level II

Monday, February 19, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I came across this graph this weekend. In 2017 the value line index was at the same level as was in 1997 and 2007. 500 points! we have been sideways for 20 years. 1997 to 2017.

 what is next. we just break up to the upside

 ENJOY the next 10 to 20 years the market could finally do what it usually does. Go up

 Value Line Geometric                                                                            
The Value Line Geometric is equally weighted based on the approximately 1700 companies covered 
in the Value Line Investment Survey. They assume equal dollar investment in each & every 
stock(excluding closed-end funds). Re-balanced daily. Introduced June 1961. Geometric average of 
stock price change


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Why should stocks go higher from an already high level?

Thursday, February 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Nasdaq just had a 17 year consolidation! In 2000 it reached 5000 points in 2017 it surpassed again 5000. Can it go higher. I guess yes. Why should stocks go higher from an already high level?

a)because that is what usually happens. (higher highs keep coming one after the other)
b)perhaps the productivity shock form the internet is going to be felt 20 year after the introduction
c)perhaps there is less and less supply of equities (number of listed equities keeps falling)
d)perhaps there is too much money chasing opportunities
e)perhaps the markets are feeling that the pace of progress is increasing (half of all patents in history have been filed in the last 10 years (I just came up with this number from my head but could be more a less correct))
………………..

Perhaps the low for 2018 is in, 9th of February last Friday.

It’s not always a Bull Market

Enjoy the Bull and the weekend

more about the same:

https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2018/02/on-big-scheme-we-are-just-starting.html




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Why people have a portfolio of Stocks & Bonds

Thursday, February 15, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Historically stocks and bonds have rarely fallen in the same year !



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On the Big scheme we are just starting!

Friday, February 09, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Resultado de imagem para ciovacco market 1934-2017


i guess after some difficult years 2000 to 2015 we could have easy markets going forward

Resultado de imagem para ciovacco market 1934-2017


i took this graphs from Chris Ciovacco tumblr.
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The market could turn up today!

Thursday, February 08, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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My best scenario today is a gap down open and a turnaround and finish strong

 why?

 short term sentiment is excess pessimism
we are in a bull market

 the worst scenario is a gap up and finish weak. If this happens we might have a different animal.





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Do you see inflation picking up?

Wednesday, February 07, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Core US CPI excluding Shelter



 I think 2018 surprise could be less growth and less inflation.
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Panic days are rare! use them .....

Tuesday, February 06, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves. The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It's suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not.
Martin Zweig

Notes
Nikkei posts biggest drop since 1990
Vix at 40
We are in a bull market

I see buying panic next before selling panic 


2018-02-05_13-39-51_0.jpg
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Antonio First off road trainning!

Sunday, February 04, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

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