Why i can't ride at 40 km an hour ?

Monday, July 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME, SPORTS

Besides the fact that i am not so good like the pro's i don't ride in a peloton. To ride inside in the middle of the peloton a cyclist saves lot's of energy. i ride in a groups of 4 or 5!  not enough.


From Peter Attia Blog, I think most casual fans of cycling know that riding in a peloton can provide an energy savings, but this just floored me: “Practically speaking,” the article notes, “the energy savings is the equivalent of pedaling 9.3 miles per hour while actually flying down the road at 33.5 miles per hour” if you’re in the right spot. 

holidays are over !

Monday, July 30, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME

So true

Sunday, July 29, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME, ECONOMICS

El ser humano tiene necesidad innata de dirigir su propria vida, de aprender y crear cosas nuevas, de mejorar, tanto a si mismo como al mundo que le rodea.

Aitor Zarate

i just read a book from Aitor and i would love to meet him one day. do anyone knows where i can find him?

He says in the book that he is not on the net , facebook etc.... It's a waste of time in his view . i agree i already have my mobile phone in silence during working hours.

Is it time to buy asset's vs Platform Companies (Uber, Booking, Apple)?

Thursday, July 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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perhaps we are in early days but i will pay attention to this graph, it's low but Ticking up.....

I am working since 1987

Thursday, July 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME, ECONOMICS

I am working since 1987 (the pic below is from 2002!)
from that period until 2000 the markets had a good run but i didn't had capital, i din't had money to invest so i profited small. I didn't had a car, i just worked.
Manuel my first boy was born in 1999. Until that time I was just working 
after 2000 i made some good bonuses from 2000 until 2009 but the markets did't collaborate. I lost money but i didn't sell anything
in 2016 S &P was at the same level that it was in 2000 a big consolidation
Are we going to have another run like we had before 2000?


am i going to see another Bull market in my life?

No one knows but i thinks it's likely after difficulties easy times, i need easy times (they are never easy)

why? because after a difficult time 2000/2016 perhaps we are going to have easy times like 1982/2000 . it's just like that. the bull can feed itself. more money, more consumption, more m&A, more consolidation, more everything.

I THINK WE ENTERING IN A BULL other scenario is we are finishing one from the deeps of 2009 and we are going to end with an explosion up

What is the problem with Europe

Thursday, July 12, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ECONOMICS, POLITICS

The great Charles Gave says that two open economies with currency set up by the market should in the long run have the same stock market return.That was the case with Italy & Germany. Until the single currency the Euro the MIB & the Dax were hand in hand.

what happen since the Euro inception? DAX up & MIB sideways

If we left the market forces work in the euro zone in 20 years the best place to build cars will build them all. What is the solution? facilitate the movement of labor and let Italy do only what they are best at. Turism/Leisure & Food

what happens with the people that used to build FIATs they must be subsidized a bit.




If two market economies allow currency flexibility and free flowing capital, their total stock market returns should, over time, be about the same. How could it be different? If one country’s corporate sector earns higher returns, its equities will outperform and attract capital from the lagging market. The impact will be to push up the currency of the high-return market and pull lower that of the low-return one. Over time, changes in competitiveness will cause returns on invested capital across both jurisdictions to equalize.
Charles Gave

Brexit should be about opportunity and hope

Tuesday, July 10, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From Tyler Durden excelent site, Zero Hedge

The much anticipated resignation letter penned by the former UK Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has been released, and in as expected, he does not mince his words in unleashing a brutal attack on Thersa May, warning that "we have postponed crucial decisions — including the preparations for no deal, as I argued in my letter to you of last November — with the result that we appear to be heading for a semi-Brexit, with large parts of the economy still locked in the EU system, but with no UK control over that system."
He then adds that while "Brexit should be about opportunity and hope" and "a chance to do things differently, to be more nimble and dynamic, and to maximise the particular advantages of the UK as an open, outward-looking global economy", he warns that the "dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt."
He then compares May's proposal to a submission even before it has been received by the EU, noting that "what is even more disturbing is that this is our opening bid. This is already how we see the end state for the UK — before the other side has made its counter-offer. It is as though we are sending our vanguard into battle with the white flags fluttering above them."
And his punchline: the UK is headed for the status of a colony:

In that respect we are truly headed for the status of colony — and many will struggle to see the economic or political advantages of that particular arrangement

I have to agree with Boris Johnson, why exit and keep the same rules as the European Union. UK should exit and be different, nibble, low taxes easy to do business etc....  to exit and keep most rules in order to have access to the free trade zone it could look as a good idea but an even better one is to exit and be better. Better rules, better laws, lower tax etc.... The pound was going down but it's up , the FTSE was going down but after all is up.....

Let UK be UK with their crazy rules

Is it time for Japan ?

Monday, July 09, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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YES it's time for everything we are in a Bull Market and usually Bull markets end in a big spike up...

Automation again

Wednesday, July 04, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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From FT, Martin Wolf

In a remarkable recent lecture, Adair Turner, former chairman of the UK’s financial regulator and chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, addresses just these questions. He started from the assumption that intelligent machines will ultimately be able to perform most forms of current work better than people and at lower cost. This, he argues, is a question of when, not if. It will happen because of the progressive advance of processing power, the costless replicability of software and the rise of machine learning. Robot gods will make us all redundant.


more about the same https://thoughtmeme.blogspot.com/2013/07/robots-dont-need-ipod-touch.html


there is no news here Martin Wolf! 
as Lord Turner says it's a question of when not if
the value of a man is less when machines make a job easier . Automatic pilot makes to control a plane much easier a lot of people can do it 

what can we do?

tax property and not work
create negative tax rates for lower income (subsidize)
invest in the Robot factory as an edge
if you can program do it
i still think that everything physical non routine (waitering, arts ) it's not going to be automated

90% of the time I short Talent !

Tuesday, July 03, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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If you are in the business of choosing managers/people you might think this is your job

There is something that is much more scarce, something rarer than ability. It is the ability to recognize ability

Bitcoin an update

Monday, July 02, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There is more to go down until 200 day moving average! Then is up to you i know what i am going to do. Not the rest of the cryptos just this one.

when ETF's came this is going to explode

in 2011 the correction was from 20 to 2. 90%

in 2014 the correction was from 1000 to 200. 80%

now from 20,000 to 6,000, 5,000 i don't know

A coincidence !

Monday, July 02, 2018 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

TAGS: ABOUTME, ECONOMICS

I came across this in The Economist this month

Abraaj, a private-equity firm, files for provisional liquidation