True ideias !

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Go long substance and short status
Pieter Thiel

PS couldn’t agree more. Forget the diploma and go for it. Start working, start doing , learn online, read,  try,  don’t wait for the diploma to get a job. If the diploma is from Harvard it might pay back even if you spend your time parting !

Buy on the rumor; sell on the news.

One of the indictments of civilizations is that happiness and intelligence are so rarely found in the same person.
William Feather
(1908 - 1976)  

I finally figured out the only reason to be alive is to enjoy it.
Rita Mae Brown
US author and social activist  

Better to rely on one powerful king than on many little princes.

Jean de La Fontaine
French poet (1621 - 1695)  

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A new ice age would begin! Wrong

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

The track record on doom, Matt Ridley

I said that one reason to be skeptical about dangerous climate change is that environmental predictions of doom are always wrong.
Here’s a list of predictions made with much fanfare and extensive coverage in the media in the 1970s, when I was young and green, in both senses of the word:
  • the population explosion would be unstoppable;
  • global famine would be inevitable;
  • crop yields would fall;
  • a cancer epidemic caused by pesticides would shorten lifespan;
  • the desert would advance at two miles a year;
  • rainforests would disappear;
  • acid rain would destroy forests;
  • oil spills would worsen;
  • oil and gas would run out;
  • and so would copper, zinc, chrome and many other natural resources;
  • the Great Lakes would die;
  • dozens of bird and mammal species would become extinct each year;
  • and a new ice age would begin;
All these were trumpeted loudly in the mainstream media. Not one of them has come even close to meeting the apocalyptic expectations of their promoters. Sometimes this was because we took action to avert the danger. Sometimes it is because the jury is still out. More often it was because the scare was exaggerated in the first place.

I took this from

http://www.thegwpf.org/matt-ridley-global-warming-versus-global-greening/

I remember clearly the mad cow disease and the new ice age. Now is the global warming. of course at the end people don't know enough about the future and are always wrong or society corrects and change habits.

2 things are really stupid for sure

To run cars with Ethanol! you need huge amounts of water to grow corn to power the cars. it would need huge size. it's inefficient.

Biologic produce is something for the very rich, why? if all the world would chose to eat bio since the yields are 20 or 30% than modified crops or normal agriculture with potassium (Potassium (K) is an essential nutrient for plant growth). If you don't add potassium after year 3 or 4 yields would be almost zero.

If everybody did what the green movement wants we could not feed the earth and we would exhaust the soils. too bad it's stupid to do things that don't work. Bio agriculture doesn't work.

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Do more. Give more. Be more. Serve more.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

The secret to wealth is simple: Find a way to do more for others than anyone else does. Become more valuable. Do more. Give more. Be more. Serve more. And you will have the opportunity to earn more--whether you own the best food truck in Austin, Texas, or you're the top salesperson at your company or even the founder of Instagram.

Tony Robbins, 

One Pharmacy near my house decided to open 24 hours a day every day in the year!

Just that. now there are always customers getting in and out. Yes the sure way to survive is to do more for your customer. Focus on your customer experience and you will do well.

The regulation, the compliance, the army of lawyers and rules are not your customer. don't get confused, only the customer matters, the rest is just noise that you have to comply but that really doesn't make you better.






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Strong State = Stalled economy

Friday, November 25, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

US stock markets are making all time highs. USD is also very strong. No other stock market in the world is near their all time high.

US has had 8 years of a stalled government, the house was republican so Obama could't do much. Spain is also without government for 2 years and they are doing great again.

I am reading the Rational Optimist and in it Matt Ridley shows that in history strong governments, unified territories with rules always promote monopolies, protect markets with tarifs and stall growth and innovation.

weak government and open trade are the best pr growth and posperity

perhaps with Mr Trump US will have a strong government and a protectionist agenda. That is not bullish for America.

why Europe is not growing, EU rules and organization dump the will to innovate and change.

I think in the end UK will do well.

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Some Thoughts for the weekend

Friday, November 18, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

1.the very definition of a high standard of living: diverse consumption, simplified production. Make one thing, use lots.


Matt Ridley, "The Rational Optimist"


2.Don't go to hospitals unless you broke a leg!
For example, side effects from medications given in hospitals kill an estimated 106,000 Americans every year................Hospitals are dangerous places, and that's not counting the estimated 99,000 deaths each year due to hospital-acquired infections.
Michael Greger, MD


3.EM are in trouble because they are not driving Inovation and Technology
Historically, a strengthening US dollar has been bad news for emerging markets; just think of the Asian crisis of 1997. And rising US long rates do not exactly help; consider the taper tantrum of 2013. Put them together then, and throw the prospect of greater trade protectionism into the mix, and the current global environment should be absolutely toxic for emerging market assets.
Joyce Poon, Gave kal


4.Fade the Inflation scare

Market-based measures of inflation expectations have turned higher, as commodity prices have bottomed & additional fiscal stimulus appears possible (with the U.S. leading the way). As we’ve noted previously, with U.S. wages rising, but still restrained, there’s little chance of runaway domestic inflation taking hold. But that does not preclude an inflation scare. We would fade such a scare in the market.
Anthony, Strategas

5.Why there will be no inflation?

Volkswagen AG reached a landmark agreement with workers to cut as many as 30,000 jobs globally and save 3.7 billion euros ($3.9 billion) in expenses as the company tries to claw back from the emissions-cheating scandal and invest in electric vehicles.

Bloomberg


6.Soft skills are the way to go
On average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired core skill sets of most occupations will be comprised of skills that are not yet considered crucial to the job today, according to our respondents. Overall, social skills—such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching others—will be in higher demand across industries than narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment operation and control. In essence, technical skills will need to be supplemented with strong social and collaboration skills.”
World Economic Forum


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Life expectancy has no relation with doctor visits!

Tuesday, November 08, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Doctors consultations per capita, 2009 and change
 between 2000 and 2009



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Is this a good marketing ? It calls our attention but .................

Tuesday, November 08, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Brilliant!

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It's not how good you are, it's how good you want to be

Monday, November 07, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Smart People go to College, but college doesn’t make people smart.


A Gary Shilling


This is completely true but since employers believe that---->

if you have a College degree from a good Institution this guy is smart

you should do all you can to get a stamp from a good school !

However if you are not very smart and since College does not turn you into a very smart person (as Gary Shilling rightly points out) you will get a job because you have the stamp but once you are inside a company you are going to have problems. It's going to be clear that you are what you are.

what should you do if you are not one of the smart people in the world. If you work hard and diligently you will surpass many smart people than you! I know this is true.

To want to win is 90% of the success

this is the best phrase ever

It's not how good you are, it's how good you want to be

Paul Arden


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This is the Man ! Not Trump or Hillary

Monday, November 07, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

“So much of what ails people has to do with diet and exercise,”

Gary Johnson

From Robert Bergland

If the presidential race were a true battle of the fittest, though, Johnson would be on top. While his Republican and Democratic opponents have faced questions about their health, Johnson’s fitness resume is likely only matched by a few people on the planet. He’s completed four Ironman triathlons, including an impressive 10:39 in 1999, averaging better than 20 mph for the 112-mile bike leg. In running shoes he has completed 17 marathons (best of 2:47). And as of this year, only 416 people have equaled him in scaling all of the Seven Summits, the highest peaks on all seven continents, including Everest. But, outside of perhaps skiing near his home in Taos, his favorite activity is biking.


He did finish one Transportugal bike race! this is a serious athlete with good head. I don't care if he doesn't know what is Aleppo! Ronald Reagan for sure never eared about Aleppo or Syria and  was one of the best ever.

To me for very important jobs you need to know 3 things:

a)To know the difference from good and bad
b)To know that the number of hours and effort one puts up makes a real difference
c)To set up big ambitious goals

i guess Gary Johnson has definitely the bottom 2 traits and possible someone who engages in serious sport is a good person and can distinguish the good and the bad.

I loved this quote! I would do the same

So, after completing the Tour Divide Race, two runs for president, and a slew of other feats of strength, what would Johnson most want to do if he had a day to himself? 
“It would be a bicycle ride, probably mountain biking or road biking,” he says.


Image result for governor gary johnson on bike


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4 ideas

Friday, November 04, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments



Norway real estate is in La la land



People love to steel Japanese cars! They are probably reliable



27% of the Japanese populations has more than 65 years of age!


Global Innovation index 2016. If you are not in the top 10 you stock market will struggle. There is an exception, Germany why? I don't know but i guess they innovate in a very limited space and that works. If a country spends their innovation budget in many spaces that probable doesn't work.

Image result for global innovation index



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Copy the best practices or inventing a new thing?

Thursday, November 03, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Today’s “best practices” lead to dead ends; the best paths are new and untried

Peter Thiel

In his excellent book Zero to One,  Thiel says there are two ways to improve

Copy something that works somewhere and do it everywhere— Globalization

Inventing something new, create a new path a better solution – Technology
  

In the last 10 years who has done better countries that copy best practices or the ones where people are engaged in inventing the future?

In the last 10 years Nasdaq is up 119% in USD, S&P up 53,77%, German Dax up 44% in USD and for example the mexico Index IPC is up 14% in USD. My country Portugal the stock index is down 62% in the last 10 years.

These numbers are without dividends but i don't think it changes the picture a lot.

What is the conclusion? If you can build a new path. It pays. Do it




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Production cut ?

Thursday, November 03, 2016 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments




I see oil going back to 20 soon.

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