Why there are no really rich people in my country!

Friday, May 31, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


Wealth median top 20% / wealth median bottom 20%




Source: European Central Bank (2013b)



Why there are almost no really rich people in the south of Europe? Because there are no big corporations like Bayer, BASF, BMW, Siemens, SAP, etc....The owners of this big multinationals are the rich people of Europe. The Globalization created a big and powerful multinationals. The big got bigger and the smaller got crushed.

When we open a big space to free trade, that is a boom to the biggest corporations. 





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Debt is like a backpack with rocks

Friday, May 31, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Europe is in constitutional crisis. No one seems to have the power to impose a sensible resolution of its peripheral countries' debt crisis. Instead of restructuring the manifestly unsustainable debt burdens of Portugal, Ireland, and Greece (the PIGs), politicians and policymakers are pushing for ever-larger bailout packages with ever-less realistic austerity conditions.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/may/23/eurozone-crisis-france-germany-kenneth-rogoff

What to do?

a)restructure = we can't pay so much so forgive us 50%---------> The north doesn't want this
b)Put some inflation in the system---------------> There is zero inflation
c)Get some growth-----------------------> if Europe cuts the cost of labor/taxes/energy bill,etc.... we might get some real growth. This is not going to happen.

What to do? We will need to restructure. Debt is like a backpack with rocks. People can not work with a huge backpack full of rock's. You can't move!

If Europe want to get away from this.

1.Restructure fast
2.No one will lend again to finance Greece, etc..... If they do it they will do it at their own risk
3.Greece will have to live with their own taxes.

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Goodbye Hollande

Friday, May 31, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments




















  • France is a mess! No doubt about that. You cannot decide anything when you have no money. When you are broke there is no room for politics. Politics is only possible when there is money!


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The Key to sucess

Thursday, May 30, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

185151.strip (1)


Source:



I tend to agree with the first part of the cartoon. You don't have to be the best if you know how to recognize ability! That is the most important quality of a leader, hire the best and the smartest.

Why is important/key to have smart people on board? In my view in our world supply is bigger than demand in most businesses. you need smart people to figure out 4 things:

a)Ways to produce whatever you do cheaper than the competition
b)marketing/positioning/branding are much more important than the product/stuff
c)If you are not the nº1 in your industry you have a big problem
d)It's much smarter to be different (different from competitors) than to be better (similar to competitors but a bit better)

if you believe in

a)best practices/copying the leader
b)advertise you are the cheapest price in town
c)saying that you product is good in everything vs the best in one feature

it's because you don't have smart people working for you.

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Why we should invest in Africa?

Wednesday, May 29, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments




World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision
Figure 13: Population change between 2010 and 2100 by major region (millions)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
(Updated: 5 July 2011)


It's very difficult to grow and make money when there is no population growth. In Africa there is population growth and people still don't have cell phone, bank account, car, etc.... Buy Africa but only the consumer story. Don't buy commodities.

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Multi National Companies have never been stronger

Monday, May 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


In 2009 we came up with 'The New Normal'" - characterized by persistently slow economic growth, elevated unemployment, high levels of geopolitical tension with social inequality and strife. It's pretty amazing how spot-on PIMCO has been with this concept. They also produced the idea of multi-speed recovery in 2011 - an idea that perfectly encapsulates this dichotomy between multi-national corporations (they have never been stronger) and low-income households (quite a different story).

"When we first introduced the concept of The New Normal, it was dismissed at idiotic and even fatalistic - by now it has become conventional wisdom, so widely used that even the IMF has adopted it."
Re: the popularity of the term New Normal, "We probably should have trademarked it, there is even a TV show that's using it."





PS The new normal is nothing more than a big oversupply of everything. In this world only the big corporations can prosper and survive. Globalization, information, internet, etc.... give a big advantage to the biggest player in each market. The middle of the pack (corporations or households) are doomed


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On the wheel of Scott Petterson

Monday, May 27, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


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Fewer options is better than...

Friday, May 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments


The researchers say other studies show that when we start with fewer options we don’t tend to ruminate on other choices, or even compare options. We simply like what we get.



When people have no choice, life is almost unbearable. As the number of available choices increases, as it has in our consumer culture, the autonomy, control, and liberation this variety brings are powerful and positive. But as the number of choices keeps growing, negative aspects of having a multitude of options begin to appear. As the number of choices grows further, the negatives escalate until we become overloaded. At this point, choice no longer liberates, but debilitates. It might even be said to tyrannize.
BARRY SCHWARTZ, The Paradox of Choice


This is so true, when we are faced with lots of options we have problems in making up our mind and even after deciding what to do we keep thinking about what we didn't choose. What should we do, i guess keep it simple as much as possible. Just one brand of juice for the kids in the fridge, to live in a small town (less options) vs the big city if possible, to really repeat the restaurants we are used to.


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Tomorrow everything will be cheaper, why buy today?

Friday, May 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


There is excess supply vs demand in almost every market. Inflation almost zero! if credit stop expanding we will have deflation. What to do? Invest in Monopolies and Brands. all the rest will not do well.....Commodities will keep going down because they are Commodities! One day people will feel that tomorrow everything will be cheaper, why buy today?

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Don't waste what you read!

Friday, May 24, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


Research shows that people who follow strategy B [read ten pages at once, then close the book and write a one page summary] remember 50 percent more material over the long term than people who follow strategy A [read ten pages four times in a row and try to memorize them].

From Dan Coyle

 http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2013/05/how-to-retain-more-of-what-you-read/


PS i am a great believer in underlying and taking notes on the book itself. When some passage is important i assign a number at the top of the page, this way i can go back and read it later.

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Just smile, it helps a lot

Thursday, May 23, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

The researchers found that physical attractiveness had a significant impact on how much people got paid, how educated they were, and how they evaluated themselves. Basically, people who were rated good-looking made more money, were better educated and were more confident. But the effects of a person's intelligence on income were stronger than those of a person's attractiveness.
"We can be somewhat heartened by the fact that the effects of general intelligence on income were stronger than those of facial attractiveness," said Judge. "It turns out that the brainy are not necessarily at a disadvantage to the beautiful, and if one possesses intelligence and good looks, then all the better."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090514130641.htm


I believe that most of our decisions are made with the first impression. Then after we decided what to do (like/buy/hire....) we do some work to justify what we already know. Since so much is decided on the first looks/impression i think the way you are dressed / the looks and the smile are key for your success in life.

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Free choice

Wednesday, May 22, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


I mean, I've always been a libertarian. Leave everybody alone. Let everybody else do what they want. Just stay out of everybody else's hair.

PS This is impossible these days! The power of the state is so big and intrusive that one day the police is going to enter your house without a judge order. It’s not far away! 


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Crossing a River

Monday, May 20, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments


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Do nothing sometimes is the best strategy

Friday, May 17, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


In an odd coincidence, a few days later I learned of a study focused on decision making and penalty kicks. The analysis covered close to 300 penalty kicks. It looked at both the goalkeepers’ decision in terms of where they chose to dive, as well as where the ball was actually kicked.
As it turns out,  the goalkeeper picks a side and dives 93.7 percent of the time and just stands in the middle only 6.3 percent of the time. There was a clear bias toward action. The kicks themselves are more evenly spread across the net, and here’s the clincher: Almost 30 percent were kicked to the middle of the net. Without boring you with the numbers, the result showed that goalkeepers could almost double their save percentage by doing nothing. In other words, just standing there was the optimal strategy.
What goalkeeper is going to do that? Can you imagine how silly that would look? Everyone is expecting action. Every other goalkeeper in the world dives to a side of the goal. Just standing there would be embarrassing.

From NYTimes

http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/13/in-soccer-and-investing-bias-is-toward-action/

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Well if you want a baby turn off the cable!

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

World-Fertility-Rate-Map (1)

lewis14


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/13/why-are-birthrates-falling-around-the-world-in-a-word-television/

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Praying before the start

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


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Ignore the news!

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Lack of Demand is the problem

Wednesday, May 15, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments


....the declining labor share of income is a decades-long phenomenon with many deep sources—capital efficiency, technology, globalization, the increased economic weight of the educated/highly skilled.

From Gave Kal

PS As this excellent piece of research shows we are in a difficult situation in the world. Big forces (Automation, Globalization, tech, etc….) are lowering the share of wages/labour  in the GDP vs capital/investor. Since it’s clear that people with less wealth (workers) tend to consume a greater share of their income we are seeing a lack of demand. The problem with the world is not a problem of lack of supply it’s a lack of demand. Even if rates are at zero why is someone going to build a new factory if the existing factories are working at half potential!

We are in a world with no top line growth (Next year you will sell a bit less)

Solutions to make money in this world:

1.Buy monopolies/Companies with big market share. They are robbing market share from the small players. They can grow in a shrinking market.
2.Companies that help cut costs/automate/outsourcing etc… These companies help to increase the margin.
3.Companies that have a unique product (Biotech etc….) and pricing power.
4.Don’t expect to make real money as a worker, it’s better to be an investor.
5.Don’t buy commodity companies (Products that can be replaced easily)

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Trans-Portugal last report

Tuesday, May 14, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

I did finish my 4th Trans-Portugal in a row!

They called themselves the Ultimate Endurance Race! Crossing Portugal in 9 days, 1150 Km off road racing across forest tracks, gravel roads and some steep single track's of Old Roman Roads!

This year i finish in the 9 th place the same as last year.

The final classification is always important but i care more about my own race.

In 2010 i did an average speed of 18,41 km/h
In 2011, did 19,68 km/h
In 2012, did 20,49 km/h
and this year did 21,21 km/h despite being sick with a stomach virus in the last 2 days. There was a virus than send some 10 riders back home earlier and annoyed some other (me) with vomit and stomach problems.

Some data points:

1.The weight is very important, i started this year with 71 kg (7 less than last year). I hired a very good sports Nutritionist.
2.I chose very resistant tyres, they are heavy but zero punctures.
3.I become almost veggan because i feel i am less prone to sickness and the recovery from an effort is easier.
4.I work with my coach, Nuno Sabido, since 2010 and the results are slow but steady. We are doing each year a different work and now i can do things impossible 2 years ago!
5.In the race the most important thing is to finish. Some people forget this and have one bad day in 9 and the final result is destroyed.
6.No one will help you! You have to count on yourself.
7.water is the most important thing in the world, if you have no water you get crazy soon. You can cope with no food but....
8.This year i didn't overeat during the race and i think it was a good strategy since i didn't put weight on the race. Sometimes since we burn some 5,000 extra calories a day we feel we can eat as much as we want.
9.It's very good to be alone 5 or 6 hours without speaking
10.For me the best strategy in each day is to start strong and fast, if i burn myself it's a pitty but if i don't i get a very good place. With this strategy there is not much left in the tank.
11.During the winter i rode every weekend with riders much better than me, i think that is very important to learn and improve.I thank my riding buddies for waiting for me so many times this year. (Some times I even try to train with the best Portuguese professionals)

Plans: This is done!  now i am going to take it easy during the summer doing some 1 day races and not much else and eventually to put some 2 or 3 kg.

here are the final results

http://www.trans-portugal.com/indexIng.htm






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Transporugal Day 3

Monday, May 06, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

Guarda - Unhais da Serra
All the stage was held at Serra da Estrela the highest mountain in Portugal with 2000 meters.
I started strongly but fadded a bit later. Finished 9th among some 80 racers.
I did 6 hours which is my personal best.
I could not keep up with the stonger riders. The stage was big climbs and then 20 min down, then another 2 hours climbs (long ones) and another 30 min downhill. Tomorow is more up and own all the time.today was possible to rest a bit in the Downhill parts. Tomorrow is more constant effort!

I am still a vegetarian!


1 comentários:

TransPortugal day 2

Sunday, May 05, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

This was a 110 k with 2000 mts of climbs from Freixo in the North of Portugal to Guarda below the Douro river. We are moving south until Sagres.

I started strongly. At km 15 we do and old Roman road, the most challenging problem of all the race! It's 1 km of steep steps with a big fall on the right! The steps are uneven and very rotten. I was able to do it on the saddle for the first time.

At the middle of the stage i started to be passed by faster riders, at km 75 i was on the 14h place. After refilling my Camelback with fresh water and eating some bars i felt better and i passed some of the guys that had taken me in the middle of the stage.

Leson of the day: don't save water, drink a lot.

Finish 7th at the sprint.

Not a bad day after all!

Now i will do massage and ice. I need a fresh pair of legs tomorrow.

If you want to follow the race you can do it online

Www.trans-portugal.com





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Day 1 Trans-Portugal

Saturday, May 04, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

Bragança to Freixo in the North of Portugal, 142 k with 3800 climbs.

I did 8 th with 6h 32 , 1 hour less tan last year!

I gave everything, heart rate always between 155 to 160. Did most of the race alone because th fastest guys were too fast and i had to do my race.

Today we will go to Guarda the highest town in Portugal.

If you want to follow go to. www.Trans-Portugal.com



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Still 71 kg

Wednesday, May 01, 2013 Francisco Carneiro 1 Comments

asurement 
Wed, May 1, 2013
VO2 Max
--
Weight
71.1 kg
Body Fat
13.6 %
Body Water
57.9 %
Bone Mass
3.1 kg
Muscle Mass
58.4 kg
Physique Rating
4
Visceral Fat
5
Metabolic Age
29 years
Daily Caloric Intake
3,122 C


3 Days for the big competition. 9 days from the north to the south tip op Portugal.

Mountain bike. off road.

If you want to follow the race online you can go to this link. First stage Saturday at 9 am Lisbon time. i am racer 262

http://www.trans-portugal.com


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