2 above 2007 peak
- From Gavekal research
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Diet day 61
71,2 kg, 11% fat and 20,6 BMI
yesterday i ate
2 Apples 160
a bit of spirullin Algae
a bit of chlorella Algae
a bit of cinnamon
Some Spinaches 40 i put all in the mixer for breakfast
1 Orange at 10 am 50
1 Grilled Fish called Pampo in Portuguese 200. It's a deep sea fish i believe
a big portion of Greens 50
3 glasses of Red Wine 150
1 muesli bar 1 hour after lunch 50
1h30 Spinning class at the end of the day 1100 calories off
For dinner 1 big eggplant grilled with Tomato 100
1 big plate of Lentils 200
Some ISWAR Hemp seeds 50
Some ISWARI Chlorella Powder 20
3 Brazilian Nuts before bed 120
Total in 1090
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If you have to sell, sell fast
From BehaviorGap.com
PS This is obvious not true because if some investors do dumb things and have a below return some smart people have an above return. All the market together have the investment return less fee's. But i liked this graph because i feel the problem with some investors is to act late. This is the reason i believe momentum still works. People wait, wait, wait until they throw in the towel near the bottom (or top).
To do well in this business you either don't move or have to act at the first signs without all the info in.
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Marão mountains in Portugal
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Diet Day 60
72,4 kg, 9,8% fat and 20,9% BMIyesterday i ate
2 Apples 160
a bit of spirullin Algae
a bit of chlorella Algae
a bit of cinnamon
Some Spinaches 40 i put all in the mixer
at 11 am 1 orange 50
1 big green salad with some chickpea (Grão) 200
1 veggie soup 200
1 orange 1 hour after lunch 50
1 muesli bar at 6 pm 100
1 plate of Aubergine and Eggplant from the oven 50
a bit of Black beans 200
a portion of Hemp seeds 100
No bike today, my target is to go until 70 kg/ 71 kg and stay there until next bike season starts in December. I have 2 trips 1 to New York on the 10th of November and one to Rio and São Paulo at the end of the month.
Total calories in 1150
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Election year
From the New Yorker
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The way is up
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$2.2m in lifetime net transfers from the state, not bad!
Erick Eschker, an economist at Humboldt State University, reckons that each
American born in 1945 can expect nearly $2.2m in lifetime net transfers from the
state—more than any previous cohort.
Boomers’ sponging may well outstrip that of younger generations as well. A
study by the International Monetary Fund in 2011 compared the tax bills of a
cohort’s members over their lifetime with the value of the benefits that they
are forecast to receive. The boomers are leaving a huge bill. Those aged 65 in
2010 may receive $333 billion more in benefits than they pay in taxes (see
chart), an obligation 17 times larger than that likely to be left by those aged
25.
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Serene Confidence
I hate to think in terms of a sure thing but for stock's and most other financial assets including precious metals, QE3 must be mighty close. I am beginning to feel what Mark Twain referred to as " the Serene Confidence" of a poker player holding four Aces.
Richard J. Maybury
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Inflation
By a continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred … the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery .. Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.Lord Keynes, 1921
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Fixed exchange rate regimes are dangerous
Fixed exchange rate regimes are dangerous. They gave the false impression that
international lending was safer than it actually was. The Great Recession and
the European Crisis exposed this false impression.
SLJ
Stephen L Jen & Fatih Yilmaz
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Re-re-election
MercoPress: - Several groups allied to Argentine president Cristina Fernandez are actively promoting a constitutional review that would allow re-election for a third consecutive four year mandate [what some call "re-re-election"].
Graph from trading economics.com
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Keep one's word
"The best way to keep one's word is not to give it."
Napoleon Bonaparte
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How to add 10 years to your life
The healthful plant-based diet that Seventh-day
Adventists eat has been associated with an extra decade of life expectancy. It
has also been linked to reduced rates of diabetes and heart disease. Adventists’
diet is inspired by the Bible — Genesis 1:29. (“And God said: ‘Behold, I have
given you every herb yielding seed . . . and every tree, in which is the fruit
of a tree yielding seed; to you it shall be for food.’ ”) But again, the key
insight might be more about social structure than about the diet itself. While
for most people, diets eventually fail, the Adventists eat the way they do for
decades. How? Adventists hang out with other Adventists. When you go to an
Adventist picnic, there’s no steak grilling on the barbecue; it’s a vegetarian
potluck. No one is drinking alcohol or smoking. As Nicholas Christakis, a
physician and social scientist at Harvard, found when examining data from a
long-term study of the residents of Framingham, Mass., health habits can be as
contagious as a cold virus. By his calculation, a Framingham individual’s
chances of becoming obese shot up by 57 percent if a friend became obese. Among
the Adventists we looked at, it was mostly positive social contagions that were
in circulation.
I don't intend to become Adventist, but a bit more veggan i think i will try. With a twist. A cup of 2 of red wine a day.
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Fair selection
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Diet day 54
71,6kg, 11,2% fat and 20,7 BMI
yesterday was a good diet day
1 orange 50
a bit of muesli 100
2 dates 50
1 apple at 11 am 100
lunch
1 plate of lentils 200
1 big green salad with ginger 100
1 portion of brown rice 200
1 orange 1 hour after lunch 50
2 dates before training 50
water during the spinning class where i burned 900 calories
1 big salad with Avocado, mushrooms, lettuce, carrot and tomato 200
1 Egg plant roasted with tomato sauce 50
1 tea before bed
total yesterday in 1150
Tomorrow i will need some carb loading so today the plan would be different
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Bubble?
Bank of America Merrill Lynch has published some eyebrow-raising research which shows Australian banks are larger than euro-zone banks.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2012/08/15/australian-banks-are-larger-than-eurozone-banks-bofa/
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Diet day 53
73 kg, 8,8% fat and 21,1 BMIafter 3 days in Paris it's not bad
now the weekend is coming and i need to put some serious carbs in for Saturday
My target is the 70 kg now
In Paris i drank a lot of good Red Wine
Since most days were buffett i could eat mostly greens
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Lance Armstrong
He was never positive
Everybody doped but i think this is a big joke.
Either you get him in 500 controls or you shut up forever.
Pereiro say some truths .............. here
In soccer even after you see on TV that Maradona scored with a hand in Mexico no one thinks about changing the result back..........! This guys want to kill the sport.
Lance my advice to you is, Stay the Course.
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France
Just landed from Paris, some ideas
1.Everything is beautiful, very good taste and the architecture is very good
2.The Hotel, Westin Vendome is a mess. No internet in the lobby, lousy gym, no air condition in the room and if you want internet in the room you have to pay extra 19 euros (on top on 320 euros). The safe in the room was broken too. The maid that clean my room removed my bike gear that was drying inside a towel. I had to move the world to get my bike shorts back!!
3.Very difficult to get a cab in Paris. Apparently the cab drivers don't allow new licenses!
4.It's confirmed Hollande hates the rich he is a Taliban.
Hollande suggested the take-home-study prohibition as part of his plan for education reform. The recently elected socialist party leader said “an education program is, by definition, a societal program. Work should be done at school, rather than at home.” He added that the homework ban was a matter of equality, since wealthier children have parental support at home that poor children do not.
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Diet day 50
72,9 kg, 9% fat and 21,1 BMI
After some days traveling it's not bad to keep the same weight
had to eat something in the planes (mostly snack's only) and i had to lunch and dinner out.
Drunk red wine but kept the same weight with zero sport! How can that be?
The key is zero carbs.
9% fat is good, i guess todays measure could be optimistic but even if it's 10% it's good
Today i am going to Paris until wednesday. I hope the Hotel has a good Gym with Spinning bikes.
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Coffee
If we drink a daily cup of coffee to increase our energy, it won't take long before its effect is diminished - before one cup of coffee will no longer serve the jolt it once did. It might seem logical, then, to drink a second cup to get the "energy" that a single cup used to deliver. But where does this cycle end?
Brendan Brazier, Ironman champion, Vegan
PS Is theory is that the stimulants like the coffee borrow energy from the future, you have a high followed by a low. worse than that we get used to the coffee and we need always more to get the same jolt. What to do?
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Government
We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force.Ayn Rand
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Ayn Rand 1920
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Public spending
“Não há futuro económico e social possível quando o problema principal não é o excesso de consumo privado, com o que nos querem convencer, mas o excesso de consumo público, a monstruosidade das despesas públicas.”
Francisco Sá Carneiro
(Comício,1978)
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Next Bubble
Easy money policies produced bubbles in the past, like the real estate bubble. Policies are now going to be easier than what we’ve previously seen and a bubble will likely result. Stocks are a good candidate and so is gold, which makes sense…
Aden Report October
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Diet day 44
72,9 kg, 11,6% fat and 21,1 BMIi am very happy because i figured out how to lose some weight
breakfast
1 orange 50
1 banana1 100
a bit of muesli 100
1 coffee
1 apple 11 am 50
1/2 Sea bass grilled 300
1 portion of Broccoli 100
1 coffee
1 apple 50
1 Spinning class 18h30, burned 900 calories, average hr 130, average watts 160
1 veggie soup 200
1 big green Salad with Spinach, mushrooms, Lettuce, tomato, cabbage and peppers 200
1 tea before bed
total calories in 1150
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Diet day 43
74,1 kg , 11,4% fat and 21,4 BMIyesterday was a good diet day
breakfast
1 orange 50
1 banana 100
a bit of muesli 100
1 big coffee
1 orange at 11 am 100
Pilates class at 12h30
1 big green salad 100
No soup because my gym restaurant run out of Soup
1 Apple 50 1 hour after lunch
1 big green tea
15 raw almonds before dinner 100
1 grilled salmon 300
1 portion of Broccoli 50
1 veggie soup 200
1 lemonade no sugar
1 tea before dinner
total in 1150
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What Deleveraging !
From SLJ market letter, Stephen L Jen & Fatih YilmazOverall leverage in DM at an historical high. Contrary to the popular presumption, total debt leverage - defined as household debt, financial sector leverage, corporate debt, and government debt – has actually increased in most developed countries since the Great Recession in 2008.
Source:
McKinsey Global Institute and SLJ Macro Partners
My Comment: Well if the deleverage process did not begin i guess deflation will come.
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Km 140 going down to the finish line
i am in yellow in the back, we did the last 14k at an average speed of 50 km/h it was fun....
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Diet day 42
75 kg, 11,8% fat and 21,7% BMISaturday was a race day
i did the Skyroad grandFondo in Lousã, Portugal
It's a 150 km race in the mountains with 3,000 meters of climbs
I did 5 hours and burned 5*800= 4000 calories (the correct number is 3960)
The 2 days before the race i ate a lot of carbs and on the race day drink and ate a lot of fruit and energy bars.
Yesterday i ate everything that i wanted, red wine, cod fish, etc..
Today am back on the diet
the target it's to stay in this zone of 72 to 74 kg
This is a pic of the start
here are the results of the race.
http://www.skyroad-grandfondo.com/images/class/ABSOLUTA_GRANFONDO.pdf
I ended on the 44th spot with some 519 cyclists finishing the race. We were some 700 but in a one day event if you have a big problem you just give up.
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Diet day 39
75 kg, 10,8% fat
yesterday it was no diet day
i ate a lot of carbs because i have a race tomorrow
today i am going to eat almost all my calories from carbs
when we eat carbs the mussels retain water with the glycogen, i need my 2 hours of glycogen suppy tomorrow
yesterday i ate 2 oranges 100
a bit of muesli 100
1 banana 100
1 apple at 10 am 100
for lunch brown rice 300
tomato 50
2 apples at 3 pm 200
dinner with friends
Tagliatelle with veg 400
4 glasses of red wine 400
zero bread
total 1750
tomorrow is race day, today i need to eat because tomorrow i will burn 800 calories for 6 hours = 4,800. i need my tank full!
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Diet day 37
74,3 kg, 12,9% fat and 21,5 BMI
yesterday i started my carb loading program for Saturday race
when we put some carbs we retain water
i expect to go up until 75 kg on race day.
yesterday i ate
1 yogurt non fat 50
a mit of muesli 100
1 orange 50
1 peach mid morning 50
1 soup beans& spinach 300
some green salad 100
some Brown Rice 200
1 peach 1 hour after 50
1 yogurt non fat 50
1 class of Pilates in the GYM
dinner
1 portion of Brown rice 200
1 soup Beans & Spinach 200
1 big salad 100
Total 1450 with some carbs
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Expect the best
It is the nature of man to rise to greatness if greatness is expected of him.
-- John Steinbeck
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Don't give up
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time-- Leo Tolstoy
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You have to show up!
It's tempting to sit and wait for life to come to you. But it can't, it's too busy. Life is out there. You have to go for it.-- Harry
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How to sell services (not products that you can touch)
In most professional services, you are not really selling expertise - because expertise is assumed, and because your prospect cannot intelligently evaluate your expertise anyway. Instead you are selling a relationship. And in most cases, that is where you need the most work. If you're selling a service, you're selling a relationship.
Harry Beckwith, Selling the Invisible
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Why people buy?
People aren’t loyal to companies, they’re loyal to peopleHarry Beckwith
PS i guess if you have a brand, Mercedes, Nestlé, etc... this is not always like this. If you are buying a service that is going to be delivered in the future that is almost always like this.
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How we decide
A first impression is often the final decision
Harry Beckwith
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Diet day 36
73,8 kg, 13,1% fat and 21,3 BMI
yesterday i drank a bit of red wine both at lunch and dinner
otherwise was a good diet day
breakfast was the usual yogurt 50
a bit of muesli 100
plenty of coffee
1 peach mid morning 50
grilled fish 300
boiled greens 100
3 glasses of red wine 300
1 orange 1 hour after lunch 50
1 yougurt 50
bit of muesli 100
1 Gold dring during trainning, 1/2 portion 100
1 max recovery after workout 1/2 portion 100
codfish 200
boiled vegetables 200
2 glasses of red wine 200
total in 1900
burned 1000 in the workout
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Danger meter
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Print is the solution?
- The solution to negative interest rates is to find refuge against debasement. This sucks liquidity into scarce and unproductive assets (gold, art, land) rather than in efficiency assets. The result is no growth in productivity. Moreover, these “dams of liquidity” grow ever larger behind the favored safe havens, raising risks of a black-swan event.
Charles Gave , from Gave Kal, 28th September
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Spain is not going to go...
According to the IMF, Germany lenders have the highest exposure in Europe to Spain, $140 billion, of which $ 46 billion is exposure to Banks
A.Gary Shilling Insight
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Why not buying a Greek bank?
In 2006, long before the truth about Greece’s dire finances was acceptable conversation at dinner parties across Europe, the geniuses charged with running Credit Agricole decided that owning a Greek bank would be an excellent way to take advantage of the burgeoning desire amongst Greeks to borrow money (cough). In their infinite wisdom, they set their sights on Emporiki Bank, an Athens-based lender that has 370 subsidiaries across Greece as well as branches in such financial nerve centres as Albania, Romania, and Bulgaria. Amazingly enough, Emporiki is reportedly one of the 500 largest banks in the world. Call me old-fashioned, but if a bank is one of the largest in the world and its operations are focused in Greece, Albania, Romania, and Bulgaria, I'm smelling some kind of rodent.
Grant Williams
PS Credit Agricole is considering selling Emporiki for 1euro now.
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Diet day 35
74,5 kg, 12,4% fat and 21,5 BMI
yesterday was a perfect diet day
no gym gym because i had a business lunch and a lot of work
1 yogurt non fat 50
1 a bit of muesli 100
1 orange 50
a big coffee
1 peach 11 am 50
sushi lunch
i ate only sashimi 500
drank 2 lemonades
1 apple 1 hour after lunch 50
1 yogurt non fat at 5 pm
dinner
2 slices of grilled fish 350
boiled pumpkin 100 (it's mostly water and it's very good)
soya beens boiled 200
1 lemonade
1 tea before bed
total in 1450
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No support for the idea that economic growth drives stock market performance
Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School did a study back in early 2010, covering 83 countries over four decades, with the results being published in the 2010 version of the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook. They found little or no support for the idea that economic growth drives stock market performance.From Niels C. Jensen 4 October 2012
© 2002-2012 Absolute Return Partners LLP
PS Sometimes we forget that what moves markets is the change of expectations. If everybody thinks China is going to growth at 10% yoy and it only delivers 6% the stock market is going down big time. The absolute level of Growth does not matter as you can see below.
Chart 3: Global Equity Returns vs. GDP Growth, 1970-2009
Chart 3: Global Equity Returns vs. GDP Growth, 1970-2009
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Politicians are like teenagers
Politicians are like teenagers. They opt for the
difficult choice only when all other options have been explored.
John Mauldin
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I am going to build a more egalitarian society
"Portugal é dos países mais desiguais... Vamos mudar este estado de coisas... Uma sociedade com menores desigualdades é uma sociedade mais justa e também uma sociedade economicamente mais forte", Vitor Gaspar.
This a quote from the Finance Minister of Portugal, last week saying that there is a big diffence between the poor and the rich and he is going to change that with taxes.
I didn't know the Government has this job, i thought that should be left to the people to compete. I thought Government should create the rules and make sure there are equal opportunities. But after the game is over to make everybody almost even the ones that did well with the ones that didn't it's not fair.
we are building a very unfair society by leveling everybody
if there are no winners no one will play the lottery
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You don’t win by predicting the future
You don’t win by predicting the future; you win by getting the odds right. You can be right about the future and still not make any money. At the racetrack, for example, the favorite horse may be the one most likely to win, but since everyone wants to bet on the favorite, how likely is it that betting on the favorite will make you money? The horse to bet on is the one more likely to win than most people expect. That’s the one that gives you the best odds. That’s the bet that pays off over time.Bill Bonner,
Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics (Agora)
PS This is very important idea, your kids can choose to study law that is going to be the degree with more demand in the future. However if there are many students doing the same option your kids might have problems.
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Diet day 34
76,2kg 13% fat 22BMI
not a bad weekend
I ate a lot of carbs on friday and saturday before the big rides of the weekend
yesterday i returned to my diet
in the morning i ate 1 non fat yogurt 50
a bit of muesli 100
a bit of Lupine before breakfast 50
black beens 200
a bit of chicken 200
a big plate of greens 100
1 apple 1 hour after lunch 50
1 green tea at 5 pm
dinner
a big portion of spinach 50
the rest lunch black beans 100
Some smoked Salmon 100
1 big green salad 100
total in 1100
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I'm a man of extremes
Here's the thing: I'am a man of extremes. I can't just have one drink. I'm either bone dry or I binge until I wake up in a hotel room in Vegas without any idea how i got there. I'm crawling out of bed at 4:45 am to swim laps in a pool- as i did throughout my teens- or i'm pounding Big macs on the couch. I can't just have one cup of coffee. It has to be a Venti, laced with two to five extra shots of espresso, just for fun. To this day "balance" remains my final frontier, a fickle lover i continue to pursue despite her lack of interest. Knowing this about myself, and harnessing the tool's I'd developed in recovery, I understood that any true or lasting lifestyle change would require rigor, specificity, and accountability. vague notions of "eating better" or maybe "going to the gym more often" just weren't going to work. I needed an urgent and strigent plan. I needed to draw a firm line in the sand.
A Line in the Sand, Rich Roll
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The Goverment
When I mention "the government," I'm referring to the overly bloated
structure cobbled together by both political parties. At this point, the term
"public servant" is an oxymoron.
All governments, big and small, seem to generally look after themselves at
the expense of hardworking folks like you and me.
Casey Research, Dennis Miller
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This is what an economy dying looks like (buy oil)
From The Atlantic
Iran's
currency has collapsed in two ways -- gradually and then suddenly. Iran is very
much in the sudden phase right now. It took 24,600
rials to buy one dollar on September 24. It took 39,000
rials to buy one dollar on October 2. That's good for a 59 percent drop in
just a week. This kind of currency cliff-diving is basically a bank run
on the rial -- a bank run U.S.-led sanctions set off.
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Diet day 29
76,1 kg, 14,7% fat and 22 BMI
yesterday was a good diet day again, no Social events
I have a difficult spinning class today, and a 4 hours ride friday morning so i start eating a bit of carbs yesterday
if i have a heavy workout only on veggies it's more difficult to have peaks and do intervals
if i start putting some carbs the water in the body goes up so i expect not to lose weight in the next 3 days
Breakfast
2 oranges 150
1 yogurt non fat 50
A bit of Muesli 100
1 peach mid morning 50
1 plate of lupine (tremoços) 100
lentils 1 plate 350
1 plate spinach 50
1 can of Sardines 200
A portion of couscous 200 (only carbs, almost no fiber)
A big plate of Salad 100
total in 1350 with a bit of carbs
Today i will put some more carbs to prepare for tomorrow ride
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Diet day 28
76 kg, 14% fat and 22 BMIyesterday was a good diet day.
1 orange 50
1 yogurt 50
a bit of muesli 100
1 big coffee
1 peach mid morning 50
1 big green tea
lunch
1 grilled fish slice 200
1 huge portion of greens (Grelos Salteados) 100
1 glass of red wine 100
1 peach 1 hour after 50
1 big green tea
1 muesli bar before gym 100
1 portion of Gold drink during workout 100
1h30 of easy spinning 1000 calories burned average 188 watts
1 slice of Codfish boiled 100
some veggies boiled 100
1 lemon juice with no sugar
total in 1100
Today is rest day so i plan a hardcore diet day
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Is This true?
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BTT Loulé/BPI has 2 new 2012 National Champions
Celina Carpinteiro and Adelino Cruz won their classes last Sunday in Algarve. They are the new 2012 National Champions.The Team did well too. Congratulations to these warriors.
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Control circumstances
A man with a surplus can
control circumstances, but a man without a surplus is controlled by them, and
often has no opportunity to exercise judgment.
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Francisco Carneiro
Lisbon Family Office
There is always a Bull market in the World
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