Who wins the Champions league'
More money more wins and more revenue! BIG get BIGGER
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Money is pretty good predictor of who will win elections
What do the numbers really tell us? These two stats jumped out at us from a post-analysis done by the Center for Responsive Politics:– 94 percent of biggest spenders in House races won, up slightly from 2012
– 82 percent of biggest spenders in Senate races won, up from 76 percent in 2012
From Washington Post
91% of the time the better-financed candidate wins. Don’t act surprised.
The chart analyzes 467 congressional races held in 2012. Its findings:
* Candidates who out-fundraised their opponents were nine times more likely to win elections in 2012.
* Winning congressional candidates outspent their opponents by about 20 to 1.
* Winning candidates on average spent $2.3 million. Losing candidates, on average, spent $1.1 million.
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More money generally means more wins
This doesn't surprise me, Miracles are rare. The biggest budget can buy the best data and the best people and the result usually is more win's. simple
The line gets steeper going from left to right, implying that in recent seasons, jumps in salary have been associated with larger gains in win percentage. Altogether, none of the 20 teams with the highest relative salaries since 1985 have finished below .500.
J.C. Bradbury, an economics professor at Kennesaw State University, found that winning more increases revenue exponentially. “Going from 85 wins to 90 is worth more than 80 wins to 85,” he says. As a result, while it might cost more per win for a team that wins 90 games than 85, it makes financial sense because the revenue reward will be higher as well. This leads to a self-perpetuating cycle.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-be-fooled-by-baseballs-small-budget-success-stories/
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The Case for 50bps
A strong policy response is necessary to guard against risks of a further, sharper loss of economic momentum. Weak incoming data, lingering trade tensions, and preventing both financial conditions from tightening and a non-linear adverse impact on growth are key reasons for a front-loaded adjustment.
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BAD -- Worry about appearing good
From Ray Dalio book Principals. I haven't read that massive volume. But some slides are so true.
This one reminds me of Europe
Let's pretend
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Economics 101 lesson 3
Bull markets tend to sprint to the finish lineBCA research
Bull markets deliver most of the gains at the end, don't sell too early
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Economics 101 lesson 2
“Crises take longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine.”Rüdiger "Rudi" Dornbusch (June 8, 1942 – July 25, 2002) was a German economist who worked for most of his career in the United States
Don't jump the gun wait for blood and then run for cover....
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Economics 101 lesson 1
Keep in mind that the U.S. dollar is a counter cyclicalcurrency, meaning that it moves in the
opposite direction of global growth
Peter Berezin, from the great BCA
when we see the USD falling is a great sign for the world.
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The Chinese miracle! Old fashion Credit......
From the great BCA
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I did warn in advance now its a bit too late
The Federal Reserve's chairman, Jerome Powell, just described bitcoin as a "speculative store of value" like the way gold is used.Bitcoin is out of the news the small investor is completely out, only institutional investors are participating now.
One bitcoin already cost more than USD 10,000 some people just miss the opportunity to own a bitcoin in their life.
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I want to thank my first five clients
I am running my own Financial consulting business since February. I registered the name Lisbon Family Office and asked for a license in the national regulator.I thought that to run a company you have to have a vision and think long term and do big projects.
I do have a vision (I expand on it later) but since the start i am solving problems every day, everyday i have a to do list and I just run trough it.
I got the license
I work in a very nice office with great people
after 5 months i have 5 clients that guarantee my business viability.
Most of my clients are outside Portugal and are very sophisticated, demanding and successful clients. My clients did very well in life they are winners all of them.
From now on i will charge more for new business. I did a really low price to start and i did star fast.
And as i said my life since February has been solving problems everyday
getting an email running
getting a Microsoft Cloud licence
getting a team
getting a logo
getting computers
getting a place to work
getting the license
getting the best lawyers
getting the best compliance
getting the best accounting
getting a Bloomberg
getting quality paid research
and finally getting the best clients.
now back to the vision my vision is in my logo
There is always a bull market in the world
I believe there are easy things to do and difficult things to do. I tend to search for some wind in the back. I find a good business when almost or all the players in a space are doing ok or good. A business where the pie is expanding and eventually find the people that are getting a bigger share of that expanding pie.
That is my vision but sometimes clients just want to solve problems with speed and some intelligence with no vision. I am here to do that too. Solve small problems and leave the big problems for a later time.
I want to thank my first five clients.
I saw this in a Blog ( Gary Mishuris at Forbes)
· Don’t
believe management’s projections, but rather rely on evidence of actual
accomplishments
· Spend
time understanding the quality of the business rather than getting lost in the
financials. Some businesses are tougher than others and they are likely to
remain so beyond the next quarter.
· Don’t
get overconfident because you know a lot of details about the business – it’s
the few big things that matter
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Why the fed is going to cut ......
Europe is already in a recession US will have one probably mild in the Q4 2019 i think the Fed is late.
Bonds are already sniffing something. Bond traders are sharper
it's a pity Draghi is at the end of the mandate otherwise i think stocks QE could be a possibility
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What if the ECB starts buying stocks
I have one thought
If S&P enters a bear market what happens to Europe that is already (part of Europe, banks etc....) in a bear market?
I think a lot about this. I have been in a bull market in my life but i had no capital, from 1988 to 2000! Now a big part of the world is not in a bull market is just exiting a big hole very slowly
of course anything is possible but if we enter a bear market in USA it's better to hide and buy some cans of sardines. and this is a serious possibility since the 1H 2019 the market is already up 17% so the upside of S&P is limited.
what to do? Expect central banks to do everything to inflate, to reflate to wake the animal spirits. The world needs inflation.
one idea?
What if the ECB starts buying stocks like bank of japan or Swiss central bank?
I don't have enough stock exposure!
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Europe loves the easy way
Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said funds that invest in illiquid assets but allow investors instant access to their money are “built on a lie” and called for changes to regulations. ... “These funds are built on a lie, which is you can have daily liquidity,” Mr Carney told MPs at a parliamentary hearing.Jun 26, 2019This is a big deal. You can see something that could be systemic,” he told the cross-party Treasury Select Committee. “These funds are built on a lie, which is that you can have daily liquidity for assets that fundamentally aren’t liquid.”
In Europe instead of making difficult to invest in Hedge Funds and other complex instruments the regulators are packaging complex things in UCITS or ETF's and the client believes he has daily liquidity until he has a surprise.
what should the regulators do?
Clearly setting the investor liquidity with a marging for a lack of perfert markets.
to let any product with credit to have daily liquidity for the investor is ridiculos. It's a lie
Europe loves the easy way, UCITS it's the easy way. The hard way would be to buy certain complex instruments clients must accept quarterly liquidity (or whatever is appropriate). If they might need the money in a hurry they are not suitable for the product.
easy way = Problems and surprises later
hard way= difficult sell but no surprises
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The reflation trade has killed many people
Two ideas from 2 smart guys,1. Central banks will ultimately generate inflation and
2.Central banks can't generate inflation because globalization and technology are preventing it.
My take is, if USD goes down Emerging markets will boom and when these countries have money to spend they spend. Not like in Developed countries that people already have 3 cars and everything. When i see EM doing great inflation will come. Until that i will stick with A Gary Shilling
Chronic Low Inflation
As Insight readers know, we’ve been
predicting chronic low inflation, if not
deflation, for years. Worldwide
supplies of almost everything exceed
demand, pushing prices down.
Globalization has restrained U.S. wages
despite the 3.6% unemployment rate as
Western technology is combined with
cheap Chinese and other Asian labor.
Uber and other on-demand businesses
also depress labor rates while smart
phones and Amazon reduce prices of
all competing goods to the lowest
offering.
A Gary Shilling
Fed policy is likely to proceed in two
stages: An initial stage characterized
by a highly accommodative monetary
policy, followed by a second stage
where the Fed is raising rates aggressively
in response to galloping
inflation.
Peter Berezin, from the great BCA service
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Francisco Carneiro
Lisbon Family Office
There is always a Bull market in the World
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