Perception is Reality

Wednesday, April 30, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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  • AshTam (8).jpg
That is the reason why the marketing is the most important person in a company unless you know something no one knows. If your product is a bit of a commodity (more people do what you do) you should invest big time in a good marketing person.
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Doing more with less = Deflation

Tuesday, April 29, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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That German inflation should be so low is a puzzle and highlights the difficulties the European Central Bank faces. After all, if an economy at broadly full employment, growing at trend and with an incipient housing boom is struggling to achieve target consumer price growth, what hope is there for countries still nursing a huge amount of economic slack.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/28/germanys-inflation-conundrum-2/?

I have posted about Deflation many times. I don't see a different outcome, capitalism is about doing more with less and that is deflationary.

http://thoughtmeme.blogspot.pt/2014/03/deflation.html
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Diet

Monday, April 28, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I don't post about my diet for some time.
The reason is simple. Too many party's & dinners out have complicated my progress.
However in the last 3 days i was able to eat ok at least at dinner time.
Yesterday i ate just a Veggie soup (Big One) & one green salad. Just that with lemonade (no sugar)
This morning i was with 80,7 kg % 19% fat (started at 84 kg) It's slow progress bit it's progress.
Yesterday i read something very interesting about Recharging the Batteries during holidays. The conclusion is that you can't recharge anything by the simple reason that our body cannot store anything besides fat & other bad things. I know this is true because i was starting to get in shape 2 weeks ago and i had the flu and in 3 days everything was lost. back to square zero.The concept behind the article was about changes in lifestyle (what you do everyday) vs doing things in a concentrated way (A Diet a detox, etc...). Of course i feel this concept is very true and i am trying to change one or two eating habits forever. What am i trying to do? When i eat home at dinner just eat a bit on things that i like. Just a bit. One of the benefits is to sleep better and to wake in the morning very hungry. It's very good to be hungry for breakfast.
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One Idea

Tuesday, April 22, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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All the tools in the world are meaningless without an essential idea
George Lois, Mad Man

Take up one idea. Make that one idea your life - think of it, dream of it, live on that idea. Let the brain, muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. This is the way to success.

Swami Vivekananda


I don't know if you can live on one idea, but i know that you cannot drift too much. One thing i have felt is that when you say you only do one thing (specialist/FOCUS) people will consider whatever you say more seriously.


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5 Ideas plus 1

Tuesday, April 22, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Some national parks have long waiting lists for camping reservations. When you have to wait a year to sleep next to a tree, something is wrong. 
George Carlin
US comedian and actor (1937 - 2008) 

What i was given to study in school i have forgotten; what i decided to read on my own, I still remember
 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

There is no school equal to a decent home and no teacher equal to a virtuous parent.” 
 Mahatma Gandhi

Character, in the long run, is the decisive factor in the life of an individual and of nations alike
 Theodore Roosevelt

Better to look weak and be strong than to look strong and be weak.
 Laura Moncur, Merriton: 35 Minutes from Home, 05-19-12
American writer (1969 - ) 


one more

6.Everything in moderation, including moderation."
Julia Child

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Stay the Course

Tuesday, April 22, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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There is more to Go, the market will get complacent  and the new highs will roll. 

The two pieces below show exactly what i think will happen, each time the market tries to correct the correction is aborted. investors will get even more confortable with the market. On top of that the credit cycle has more room to go. Banks are clean. All in all there is more to go.

CHARLIE ROSE: And what is the story of the turkey?
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: In the book, I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days…
CHARLIE ROSE: Gets fatter and fatter and fatter.
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Fatter and fatter. On the day when its comfort will be at its maximum, there is going to be a surprise. There will be a surprise for the turkey.
CHARLIE ROSE: Yes.
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: There will be a surprise for the turkey’s economics department, all those Ph.D.’s. Will it be — after all, there’s maximum (inaudible)…
CHARLIE ROSE: But it’s not a surprise for the butcher, is it?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Not a surprise for Charlie Rose as well. Not a surprise for humans. It’s a surprise for the turkey. So the whole idea here is we are not to be a turkey.

Then once the S&P goes above 1900 the bubble phase we’ve been looking for will be back on the table and the market will have the guarantee that corrections are not going to be allowed to progress. As long as the market is confident the Fed is back stopping the market this should have the effect of creating extreme complacency over the next couple of months. 
From Gary Savage, Smart Money Tracker

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First Race of Season

Monday, April 14, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Not happy at all

Monday, April 14, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Saturday i had my first race of the season. Serpa 165 k

It's a mountain Bike race in a very flat area of Portugal. We climbed 2700 meters in 165k which is not very much.

I slept well and i was ready at 8 am at the starting line. I had breakfast at 6 and i was feeling nervous but ok. Everything was ok.

Despite being over my ideal weight with 82kg I started well and felt great (with some up's & downs) until km 130 with 6 hours of race. At that point i was with an average heart rate of 165! It's a lot for me. After that i wit the wall and lost the group i was in with Vitor Gomes and Tiago Gomes. They finished with 7h13 the same time i did last year. I limped until the food stop at km 146. I ate some fruit and drank some coke and after that i cruised until the finish line slowly and painful.

I was taken over by some 10 guys in the last hour. I ended with 7h28 in 59th place. My average heart rate for the full race was 161 which is a lot for my age. 

http://www.srp160.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=57&Itemid=266&lang=pt


These races are a big roller coaster because sometimes we feel great and sometimes i just want to quit and sleep. By some reason the brain changes his mood big time. The trick is never stop and never quit and don't pay attention to the brain.  After we cross the finish line and drink a glass of coke & some food everything is fine again.

Besides the fact that i am overweight i guess i did't  eat properly. With an heart rate of 165 i was burning 850 calories every hour. I drank some concentrated Hummer Perpetum  and some fruit every 2 hours. That was not enough. Sometimes when we are with 165 heart rate even eating is difficult. Next time i will make more carb drink before the start because it's difficult to chew, i was to tired for that! I didn't want to chew the bars i had. I was to tired to put my hands in the back pocket.

 This pic was taken after the finish line. Not happy at all

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Diet

Thursday, April 10, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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81,4 kg and 19,9% fat

 yesterday was a good diet day. 
1 piece of fruit in the morning
Chicpeas & codfish for lunch
1 apple at 5 pm
went to the gym at 7 pm , 125 min, 1150 calories, average HR 155, average watts 241
black beans& green salad for dinner
1 veggie soup with Chlorela
1 mint tea before bed
Today i am going to load a bit on carbs because of tomorrows race
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Do you want growth? Here is one easy solution

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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I guess pay for Performance works! Of course it works.

The countries that are growing more are on the left side and countries that are sick (Europe) are on the right side. Of course many other things can influence growth like stupid regulations & regulators (Again Europe). It's a simplistic analysis but it makes me think.

 There is a huge correlation (Not causation) between growth & existence of pay for Performance.

 Besides this many people in this Study feel that their contribution is much higher than their pay (It's almost never the case) , so if pay is linked in some way to some objective target or metric people will feel more in charge of their condition. This i think is a wonderful thing.


http://blogs.sap.com/innovation/human-resources/how-your-country-compares-on-performance-pay-01244922


Survey: Is any of your pay dependent upon your productivity targets?
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Labor is losing big time

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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The American worker knows that "improved efficiency" is largely innuendo for layoffs, longer hours, and only modest pay increases (assuming you can convince your boss to give you a raise).
So far, these efficiencies have been lucrative. Widening profit margins have enabled corporations to book fat profits on modest revenue growth.
But how long can this trend last?


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gerard-minack-on-profit-margins-2014-4#ixzz2yNG6aFmx

You know i have written about this over and over again. A man with a machine can do the work of 100 man or more. If this is the case the salary of a man or woman must go down slowly but surely.

What can we do?

1.Do something manual that can not be replaced by a machine ( Bike Mechanic, Hair dresser, Gardener etc...)

2.Invest in the shares of the machine factory.

3.Invest your money in the companies that have the most machines & least labor costs. I guess the early adapter and of course the low cost producer.




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Diet

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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81,4 kg, 20,4% fat
Yesterday was a good diet day.
For Breakfast I ate 2 slices of cake made by my mother (i know it's a bad start)
Just Green tea in the morning with cinnamon
Black Beans & Broccoli for lunch (A big portion) with Olive oil & some seeds
1 banana at 5 pm
Went to gym at 7 pm 1200 calories, average HR 159 and average watts 240, 1h25 minutos
Dinner just a Veggie soup
I have a competition Saturday so Thursday & Friday i am going load a bit on carbs
If i could go into Saturday with 80,5 kg would be great




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4 days to the first race of the season

Tuesday, April 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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Diet

Tuesday, April 08, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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83,5 kg and 18,5% fat. Back to day zero weight.

 Yesterday i travelled to Porto by car
ate some strawberries for breakfast and some Green tea
ate one sandwich on the motorway
had a business lunch where i drank 2 glasses of red wine with some fish
no desert
For dinner i ate a veggie soup and some spinach with sesame
No time for sport yesterday

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Diet Day 3

Tuesday, April 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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81,7 kg and 21% fat
yesterday was not a perfect diet day you will see why
breakfast 1 Apple & Green Tea with Cinnamon
Lunch 1 Veggie soup
BlackBeans & Broccoli
1 Apple at 3 pm
1 Banana at 5 pm
Went to the Gym at 7 pm and dis 90 min workout. Burned 1100 calories
Dinner
1 veggie soup
Black Beans  6 Green salad
2 glasses of red wine
some almonds (Too many…)
Today i hope to be back on track because Thursday i am heading into Geneva and it's always difficult the eat well outside home.



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First race of the season next week!

Tuesday, April 01, 2014 Francisco Carneiro 0 Comments

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getting mode vegan by the day


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