I was wrong on this
I wrote this in 2016 in this Blog:
I think a country where the leader send her only daughter to Harvard is a country to respect. Now there are 304,000 Chinese Students in the USA. Why we should respect China? because they already have 4 things
work ethic
size
organization
don't waste time in politics
what they are missing? Marketing and image. No one wants to buy a Chinese car. But this could change.
These students that are in USA might make the change. I am bullish on China
I was wrong at least in what concerns the stock market, China has been a disappointing and that is not new., see below Prof Siegel comments. To make money the solid and obvious almost always wins versus the exciting and the new. China is the future but not yet in the stock market.
I am bullish on China (2016)pot.com/2016/04/i-am-bullish-on-china.html
In 2022 6th edition of Stocks for the long Run Professor SIGEL writes
The last 30 years provide an even more striking example. From 1992 through 2020, China, the world's second economy, has generated the fastest GDP growth by far, averaging 9,3% percent per year. Yet the annual return on Chinese stocks has been only 2,7%, the absolute lowest among 18 emerging markets. In contrast, the highest stock market returns over this period among developing economies have been in Peru and Brazil, although they are near the bottom of GDP growth.
I first reported this seemingly puzzling result in the second edition of Stocks for the long run. I found that from 1970 to 1997, the correlation between stock returns and GDP growth was -0,32 for 17 developed countries and -0,03 for 19 emerging countries.
0 comentários: