The reflation trade has killed many people
Two ideas from 2 smart guys,1. Central banks will ultimately generate inflation and
2.Central banks can't generate inflation because globalization and technology are preventing it.
My take is, if USD goes down Emerging markets will boom and when these countries have money to spend they spend. Not like in Developed countries that people already have 3 cars and everything. When i see EM doing great inflation will come. Until that i will stick with A Gary Shilling
Chronic Low Inflation
As Insight readers know, we’ve been
predicting chronic low inflation, if not
deflation, for years. Worldwide
supplies of almost everything exceed
demand, pushing prices down.
Globalization has restrained U.S. wages
despite the 3.6% unemployment rate as
Western technology is combined with
cheap Chinese and other Asian labor.
Uber and other on-demand businesses
also depress labor rates while smart
phones and Amazon reduce prices of
all competing goods to the lowest
offering.
A Gary Shilling
Fed policy is likely to proceed in two
stages: An initial stage characterized
by a highly accommodative monetary
policy, followed by a second stage
where the Fed is raising rates aggressively
in response to galloping
inflation.
Peter Berezin, from the great BCA service
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