It is more difficult to stay on top than .......
What is right?
This
The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's Law) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age.
or this
It is more difficult to stay on top than to get there.
Larry Hamtil call my attention to this graph. The title says it all. However since 2010 something changed!
The top 5 European's Soccer/Football clubs are pretty much the same since 2010, and are probably even better vs the rest
The Top 5 hedge Funds in the world Millennium , Brevan etc... are the same since 2010 and probably even better
The top 100 Companies in 2020 have the same market cap as they did in 2010 and are even more competitive.
Did something change in this world? I tend to think there is never nothing new. I think the normal cycle of being the best, getting big & fat, loss of focus and mean reverting will still be in place. In the case of Hedge Funds the best of them are doing something different, no growth of assets, return capital to investors, create better liquidity for themselves and that as keep them focus and sharp.
for how long?
Of course if you Buy something in the percentile 99 and it falls to percentile 90 is still incredible. I think this is the Lindy Effect.
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