90% of the time I short Talent !
If you are in the business of choosing managers/people you might think this is your jobThere is something that is much more scarce, something rarer than ability. It is the ability to recognize ability
Robert Half
After many years doing this, my view has changed a bit! between a) and b)
a)there is a strategy with many managers that on average in the last 5 years did nothing. zero. But there is one manager in London called Ro@@@ that is doing 10% a year in the last 5 years. He is very talented. He is the best in his group, he is the best in class!
b)There is a strategy that is less crowded and where all the managers in the strategy have made 5% a year in the last 5 years. It looks like no one is talented but the strategy must be "easy" because everybody does ok
what should i choose?
i tend to short talent unless is a quant shop with thousands of trades (A casino)
my experience tells me that the outlier will revert back to the group, revert to the mean
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