Why is the market diving?

Friday, February 28, 2020 Francisco 0 Comments


Is it the virus? No the virus is not so bad at all. It's because the market (equities) is pricing in a recession. That is it

Normally in a recession markets fall between 20% and 50%. 2008 56% in 2000 49% etc....

From Charles GAVE excellent piece yesterday

As Frédéric Bastiat never tired of saying, economics is all about “what is seen, and what is not seen.” In recent years, what markets have seen is the rise of profit margins permitted by globalization, and the adoption of the platform company model. What markets have not seen so clearly is the rise in fragility that came with the optimization of supply chains: fragility as supply chains became ever more dependent on China; political fragility as Western workers (and voters) felt increasingly squeezed out; and financial fragility as Western governments continue to increase budget deficits, passing on to future generations the cost of running today’s welfare states.






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